Zhang et al. (2025) Future Meiyu Precipitation Change and Atmospheric River Impacts Across East Asia: Regional Disparities and Risks

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-31
• Authors: Oscar Y. W. Zhang, Lun Dai, Mengqian Lu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044116

Research Groups

Information not available in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study projects future changes in East Asian Meiyu precipitation and its coupling with atmospheric rivers (ARs) under CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, finding significant increases in both mean/extreme rainfall and AR intensity, primarily driven by thermodynamic moistening, with notable regional variations.

Objective

• To project future changes in Meiyu rainfall and its coupling with atmospheric rivers (ARs) in four East Asian regions (Korean Peninsula, South Japan, lower Yangtze River basin, and South China coast with Taiwan Island) under CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP245) and 5–8.5 (SSP585) scenarios, and to attribute the underlying mechanisms.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Four land regions in East Asia: Korean Peninsula (KR), South Japan (JP), lower Yangtze River basin (LYRB), and South China coast with Taiwan Island (SCTW).
• Temporal Scale: Projections for the end of this century, comparing future climate under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
• Data sources: Outputs from CMIP6 climate models.

Main Results

• Mean and extreme Meiyu precipitation are projected to increase under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, with marked regional variations.
• Under the SSP585 scenario, SCTW experiences the largest increase in Meiyu rainfall (>40%), while JP exhibits the weakest amplification by the end of this century.
• The frequency of hazardous rainfall events is anticipated to increase substantially, particularly over KR and SCTW.
• AR landfalls are projected to intensify by approximately 70% over KR and LYRB, and to nearly double over SCTW, with a smaller increase over JP.
• This intensification leads to an enhancement in the local AR-related wet-day and extreme precipitation frequency, although the efficiency of AR precipitation may reduce.
• Attribution analyses suggest that thermodynamic moistening (vertical moisture term) broadly dominates the precipitation increases. This effect is partly offset by the vertical circulation effect in the LYRB and JP, and strengthened in KR and SCTW.

Contributions

• Provides comprehensive projections of future Meiyu rainfall and its coupling with atmospheric rivers across key East Asian regions using CMIP6 models under SSP scenarios.
• Offers detailed regional variations in projected changes for mean and extreme Meiyu precipitation and AR intensity.
• Attributes the projected precipitation increases primarily to thermodynamic moistening, clarifying the underlying physical mechanisms.
• Highlights the challenges for climate risk management under global warming and underscores the significant benefits of mitigation (SSP245) in reducing intensification and risk.

Funding

Information not available in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Zhang2025Future,
  author = {Zhang, Oscar Y. W. and Dai, Lun and Lu, Mengqian},
  title = {Future Meiyu Precipitation Change and Atmospheric River Impacts Across East Asia: Regional Disparities and Risks},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044116},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044116}
}