Wu et al. (2025) Thermodynamic and Dynamic Effects of Parametric Uncertainties on the Simulated Interannual‐To‐Interdecadal Variability of Summertime Precipitation Over China

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-12
• Authors: Wen Tao Wu, Ben Yang, Zhun Guo, Danqing Huang, Yaocun Zhang
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044225

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies uncertainties in simulated precipitation variability over China, attributing them primarily to the thermodynamic component, though the dynamic component's uncertainty is comparable, especially interannually. It identifies convective precipitation evaporation as a major source of interannual uncertainty, demonstrating its complex role in enhancing large-scale precipitation despite local suppression.

Objective

• To comprehensively analyze the uncertainties in simulated precipitation variability over dry and wet regions of China using a 40-year parameter-perturbed ensemble.
• To quantify the dynamic and thermodynamic contributions of physical parameters to precipitation variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Dry and wet regions of China.
• Temporal Scale: 40-year period (1975 to 2014), with analysis at interannual and interdecadal timescales.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models (parameter-perturbed ensemble).
• Data sources: Model simulations (parameter-perturbed ensemble).

Main Results

• Precipitation variability in China is primarily attributed to changes in the thermodynamic component of precipitation.
• The uncertain range of the dynamic component is comparable to that of the thermodynamic component, particularly at the interannual timescale.
• At the interdecadal timescale, most uncertainty in precipitation variability arises from internal model stochasticity.
• At the interannual timescale, nearly 50% of the uncertainty is contributed by the parameter related to convective precipitation evaporation.
• A stronger convective precipitation evaporation rate simultaneously increases both the dynamic and thermodynamic components of precipitation, indicating a tight interconnection between their responses.
• Increased evaporation suppresses local convective precipitation but strongly enhances large-scale precipitation by increasing low-level water vapor and promoting remote moisture transport.
• This leads to a net increase in total precipitation in convergence zones over tropical and subtropical monsoon regions, which in turn enhances upward motion.
• Stronger convergence in wetter years, compared to drier years, is more favorable for the long-range transport of moisture to mid-high latitudes, thereby enhancing precipitation interannual variability in China.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive quantification of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions of physical parameters to precipitation variability uncertainties in China.
• Identifies the significant role of convective precipitation evaporation as a major source of uncertainty in interannual precipitation variability.
• Elucidates the complex mechanism by which increased convective evaporation influences precipitation, involving both local suppression and remote enhancement through moisture transport.
• Highlights the importance of internal model stochasticity for interdecadal precipitation variability uncertainty.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Wu2025Thermodynamic,
  author = {Wu, Wen Tao and Yang, Ben and Guo, Zhun and Huang, Danqing and Zhang, Yaocun},
  title = {Thermodynamic and Dynamic Effects of Parametric Uncertainties on the Simulated Interannual‐To‐Interdecadal Variability of Summertime Precipitation Over China},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044225},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044225}
}