Filipiak et al. (2025) Assessing Dynamic and Thermodynamic Variability in Initial and Boundary Conditions for Snowstorm Prediction in the Northeast United States

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-03
• Authors: B. Filipiak, Marina Astitha, Diego Cerrai
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044240

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigated the impact of different initial condition sources on winter precipitation prediction in the Northeast United States, finding that relative humidity variability in initial and boundary conditions was the primary source of uncertainty in model simulations, heavily influencing precipitation accumulation discrepancies.

Objective

• To identify the sources of variability from initialized atmospheric fields within four different sets of initial conditions and their impact on the prediction of winter precipitation processes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northeast United States (regional)
• Temporal Scale: Winter storms (event-based, seasonal context)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Numerical modeling (specific model not named in abstract)
• Data sources: Four different sets of initial and boundary conditions (specific sources not named in abstract), which vary in horizontal and vertical resolution, data assimilation schemes, and domain.

Main Results

• Relative humidity across different initial and boundary conditions produced the most uncertainty in the model simulations.
• Variability in temperature or synoptic conditions played a minor role in the simulation uncertainty.
• Vertical profiles of relative humidity and temperature were connected to microphysical hydrometeor species within the model to explain precipitation differences.
• Relative humidity differences were heavily linked to precipitation accumulation discrepancies and were identified as the main source of variability originating from the initial conditions.

Contributions

• Addresses a gap in previous modeling studies by exploring the impact of different initial condition sources, rather than just model physics, on winter storm prediction.
• Identifies relative humidity as the critical atmospheric field in initial and boundary conditions contributing to uncertainty in winter precipitation forecasts.
• Highlights the need for developing more accurate relative humidity profiles for model initial and boundary conditions to improve winter storm predictions.

Funding

Not mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Filipiak2025Assessing,
  author = {Filipiak, B. and Astitha, Marina and Cerrai, Diego},
  title = {Assessing Dynamic and Thermodynamic Variability in Initial and Boundary Conditions for Snowstorm Prediction in the Northeast United States},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044240},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044240}
}