Cai et al. (2025) Impacts of Local and Remote Sub‐Grid Terrain Solar Radiative Effect on the Meiyu Rainfall Forecast in the Yangtze‐Huaihe River Basin, China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-20
• Authors: Shuxin Cai, Kefeng Zhu, Anning Huang, Chunlei Gu, Yang Wu, Xinsheng Zhu, Wei Zhao
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044324

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study systematically explores the relative impacts of local (Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin) and remote (Tibetan Plateau) sub-grid terrain solar radiative effects (STSRE) on Meiyu rainfall forecasts in East Asia. It finds that local STSRE significantly improves forecast skill more than remote STSRE, primarily by reducing the overestimation of rainfall.

Objective

• To systematically explore the impacts of local and remote sub-grid terrain solar radiative effect (STSRE) on Meiyu rainfall forecasts, their relative importance, and underlying physical mechanisms.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: East Asia, specifically focusing on the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) and the Tibetan Plateau (TP).
• Temporal Scale: 3–4 days weather forecasts.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
• Data sources: Not specified in the provided abstract.

Main Results

• The local sub-grid terrain solar radiative effect (STSRE) of the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) leads to a relatively larger improvement in Meiyu rainfall forecasts compared to the remote STSRE of the Tibetan Plateau (TP).
• Quantitatively, the local STSRE of YHRB decreased the root mean square error by 6.24% and increased the Taylor score by 2.76%.
• The STSRE of the TP weakens the TP heat source, leading to a weakening and westward shifting of the South Asian High, which suppresses divergence in the upper troposphere and ascending motion over the YHRB, thereby improving Meiyu rainfall forecasts.
• The STSRE of the YHRB decreases surface incident solar radiation and surface thermal conditions, producing a cold anomaly and anticyclonic circulation difference in the lower troposphere over the YHRB. This anticyclonic difference directly weakens southwesterly water vapor transport, reducing the overestimation of Meiyu rainfall.

Contributions

• Systematically explores the relative importance and physical mechanisms of local versus remote sub-grid terrain solar radiative effects (STSRE) on Meiyu rainfall forecasts.
• Highlights the critical role of local terrain (Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin) over remote terrain (Tibetan Plateau) in enhancing Meiyu rainfall forecast accuracy for short-range weather forecasts (3–4 days).

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Cai2025Impacts,
  author = {Cai, Shuxin and Zhu, Kefeng and Huang, Anning and Gu, Chunlei and Wu, Yang and Zhu, Xinsheng and Zhao, Wei},
  title = {Impacts of Local and Remote Sub‐Grid Terrain Solar Radiative Effect on the Meiyu Rainfall Forecast in the Yangtze‐Huaihe River Basin, China},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044324},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044324}
}