Rao et al. (2025) Intensification of Compound Extremes Over India Under 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Levels: Insights From Bias‐Corrected CMIP6 Simulations

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-17
• Authors: K. Koteswara Rao, Buri Vinodhkumar, Pavan Harika Raavi, Tumuluru Venkata Lakshmi Kumar, Srinivas Desamsetti, Sridhar Gummadi, Jasti S. Chowdary, Athira Unnikrishnan Nambeesan, Sami G. Al‐Ghamdi
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044366

Research Groups

Not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

This study assesses future compound climate extremes in India under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming levels using high-resolution CMIP6 projections. It finds that cold-related extremes will become rare, while warm-related extremes, particularly Warm-Dry and Warm-Wet events, will significantly increase across India, leading to sharply rising population exposure.

Objective

• To assess the future compound extremes, specifically Cold-Dry (CD), Cold-Wet (CW), Warm-Dry (WD), and Warm-Wet (WW) events, across India under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming levels for two future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) during the pre-monsoon season (March-June).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: India, with specific focus on West Central India (WCI), North East India (NEI), and Central North East India (CNEI).
• Temporal Scale: Pre-monsoon season (March-June); future climate projections under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming levels, with largest changes emerging by the mid-21st century.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: High-resolution, statistically downscaled, and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections from 30 different models.
• Data sources: CMIP6 climate model outputs.

Main Results

• Cold-related extremes (CD, CW) are projected to become rare across India.
• Warm-related extremes (WD, WW) are projected to increase significantly across India.
• The largest changes in warm-related extremes are expected by the mid-21st century across West Central India (WCI), North East India (NEI), and Central North East India (CNEI).
• The occurrence of Warm-Dry (WD) events is projected to approximately double across India during the pre-monsoon season.
• The occurrence of Warm-Wet (WW) events is projected to increase nearly threefold across India during the pre-monsoon season.
• The intensification of wet and dry extremes is primarily driven by temperature increases, reinforced by land-atmosphere coupling and thermodynamic constraints such as higher vapor pressure deficit and greater moisture holding capacity.
• Circulation-driven precipitation changes play a lesser role in the intensification of these extremes.
• Population exposure to WD and WW events is projected to rise sharply, particularly in densely populated and climate-sensitive regions.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, high-resolution assessment of future compound climate extremes (CD, CW, WD, WW) in India under specific global warming levels (1.5°C, 2.0°C) and socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) using a large ensemble of CMIP6 models.
• Quantifies the projected significant increase in warm-related extremes and decrease in cold-related extremes across India.
• Identifies the dominant physical drivers (thermodynamic vs. circulation) behind these changes and highlights regions most affected.
• Offers critical insights for targeted, region-specific adaptation planning and risk-informed decision-making to manage escalating risks from compound extremes.

Funding

Not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{Rao2025Intensification,
  author = {Rao, K. Koteswara and Vinodhkumar, Buri and Raavi, Pavan Harika and Kumar, Tumuluru Venkata Lakshmi and Desamsetti, Srinivas and Gummadi, Sridhar and Chowdary, Jasti S. and Nambeesan, Athira Unnikrishnan and Al‐Ghamdi, Sami G.},
  title = {Intensification of Compound Extremes Over India Under 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Levels: Insights From Bias‐Corrected CMIP6 Simulations},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044366},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044366}
}