Wang et al. (2025) More Frequent and Intense Tropical Cyclone‐Heat Wave Compound Extremes Over the Coastal Regions of China in a Warmer Climate

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-25
• Authors: Pinya Wang, Cuini Qi, Yang Yang, Lili Ren, Jianping Tang, Hong Liao
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044509

Research Groups

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study projects future changes in tropical cyclone and heat wave (TC-HW) compound extreme events over the southeastern coast of China (SECC) using high-resolution CMIP6 simulations. It finds that TC-HW events are projected to become significantly more frequent and stronger under high-emission scenarios, primarily driven by enhanced heat wave activity.

Objective

• To examine the projected changes in frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns of tropical cyclone and heat wave (TC-HW) compound extreme events over the southeastern coast of China (SECC) under future climate warming.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southeastern coast of China (SECC).
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1980–2010) for climatology, and future projections under the high-emission scenario (SSP-585).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) simulations.
• Data sources: Observational data and high-resolution climate model simulations from CMIP6 HighResMIP.

Main Results

• TC-HW events are projected to be more frequent and much stronger in the future under the high-emission scenario (SSP-585).
• Tropical cyclones induce pre-landfall warming over the SECC land region, particularly over the eastern part, exceeding 1.5 °C relative to the 1980–2010 summertime climatology. This warming is driven by subsidence and increased solar radiation.
• Pre-landfall warming is followed by post-landfall cooling, with temperature anomalies reaching up to -1 °C relative to the historical summertime climatology.
• Future TC-HW events are projected to be stronger, with temperature exceedance above 2 °C relative to the historical summertime climatology.
• The annual occurrence of TC-HW events is projected to increase by 30–50 events compared with the historical period.
• The projected increases in TC-HWs are predominantly driven by the enhanced frequency and intensity of heat waves under global warming.
• TC-HWs will exhibit broader spatial extent of influence and prolonged durations, even from TC genesis stages.

Contributions

• Provides future projections of tropical cyclone and heat wave (TC-HW) compound extreme events over the southeastern coast of China using high-resolution CMIP6 simulations.
• Quantifies the projected increases in frequency and intensity of TC-HW events under a high-emission scenario.
• Identifies the primary driver of increased TC-HWs as enhanced heat wave frequency and intensity.
• Details the pre-landfall warming and post-landfall cooling mechanisms associated with TCs in the context of compound events.
• Highlights the increasing risks of compound TC-HW extremes and underscores the need for early warning systems and urban heat mitigation strategies.

Funding

Information not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Wang2025More,
  author = {Wang, Pinya and Qi, Cuini and Yang, Yang and Ren, Lili and Tang, Jianping and Liao, Hong},
  title = {More Frequent and Intense Tropical Cyclone‐Heat Wave Compound Extremes Over the Coastal Regions of China in a Warmer Climate},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044509},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044509}
}