Farooq et al. (2025) Regional Hotspots of Lake Evaporation Changes Driven by Surface Energy Balance and Climate Interactions

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-19
• Authors: Umar Farooq, Heping Liu, Qianyu Zhang, Muhammad Muzammil, Jingfeng Wang, Lian Shen
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044868

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study projects global lake evaporation responses to a high-emissions warming climate (RCP8.5) by the end of the 21st century, revealing a global mean increase of 13% driven by enhanced energy availability and synergistic interactions among vapor pressure deficit, radiation, and wind speed.

Objective

• To project the responses of global lake evaporation to a warming climate under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) by the end of the 21st century.
• To identify regional hotspots of lake evaporation sensitivity by analyzing changes in long-term mean and interannual variability.
• To determine the dominant individual and synergistic climate drivers of lake evaporation hotspot patterns.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with regional analysis focusing on low-, mid-, and high-latitude regions, and specific polar hotspots (Greenland, Alaska, Northern Europe).
• Temporal Scale: Projections for the end of the 21st century, analyzing long-term mean and interannual variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Lake, Ice, Snow, and Sediment Simulator (LISSS) within the Community Land Model (CLM); Geographical Detector Model.
• Data sources: Climate model projections under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

Main Results

• Global mean lake evaporation is projected to increase by 13% by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario.
• The largest absolute increases in lake evaporation occur in low- and mid-latitude regions, primarily driven by enhanced energy availability.
• High-latitude lakes exhibit the greatest relative increases in evaporation due to reduced snow and ice cover, leading to lower albedo and higher solar absorption.
• Regional hotspots of lake evaporation sensitivity are concentrated in polar regions, including Greenland, Alaska, and Northern Europe. These hotspots do not always align with areas of greatest absolute increases.
• Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is identified as the dominant individual driver of the observed hotspot patterns.
• Strong synergistic interactions among VPD, radiation, and wind speed reveal that evaporation responses are governed by the combined influence of radiative and atmospheric drivers, rather than individual factors alone.

Contributions

• Provides the first global projections of lake evaporation sensitivity to climate warming under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) using a coupled lake-land surface model (LISSS-CLM).
• Identifies specific regional hotspots of lake evaporation sensitivity, highlighting areas of particular vulnerability to climate change.
• Demonstrates the dominant role of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) as an individual driver and the critical importance of synergistic interactions among multiple climate drivers (VPD, radiation, wind speed) in governing lake evaporation responses.
• Emphasizes the necessity of accounting for both surface energy balance changes and compound climate drivers when assessing the sensitivity of inland waters to global warming.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Farooq2025Regional,
  author = {Farooq, Umar and Liu, Heping and Zhang, Qianyu and Muzammil, Muhammad and Wang, Jingfeng and Shen, Lian},
  title = {Regional Hotspots of Lake Evaporation Changes Driven by Surface Energy Balance and Climate Interactions},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044868},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044868}
}