Li et al. (2025) Modeling Land Subsidence Under Future Water Stress: The Influence of Groundwater Exploitation, Climate Change, and Inter‐Basin Water Diversion

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-01
• Authors: Hongkai Li, Zhilin Guo, Kewei Chen, Yang Zhan, Yushan Wang, Ding Chen, Chunhui Lu, Chunmiao Zheng
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr041105

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study develops a coupled groundwater flow and land subsidence model to explore the co-evolution of groundwater levels and land subsidence in a key city along China's South-to-North Water Diversion route under future scenarios. It finds that future changes in groundwater levels and subsidence are primarily driven by water demand and diversion strategies, with climate change having a minor effect, and demonstrates that optimized water management can lead to significant subsidence recovery.

Objective

• To explore the co-evolution of groundwater level fluctuations and land subsidence under future development, climate change, and groundwater management strategies, specifically assessing the long-term effects of large-scale water transfer projects like China's South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: A key city in the middle route of China's South-to-North Water Diversion project.
• Temporal Scale: From 2020 to 2050 (30 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled groundwater flow and land subsidence model.
• Data sources: Water demand projections (from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs), climate change scenarios (from CMIP6), and water diversion strategies.

Main Results

• Future (until 2050) groundwater level changes and land subsidence are primarily driven by water demand (over 50%) and water diversion (up to 45.3%), with climate change having a minor effect (under 18.6%).
• Under scenarios of reduced demand and increased diversion, subsidence recovery could reach 56.8 mm (averaging 1.9 mm per year) between 2020 and 2050.
• In a worst-case scenario with rising demand and no diversion optimization, subsidence could worsen by up to 439.9 mm (averaging 14.7 mm per year).
• Water diversion could be 15 times more effective in mitigating subsidence under higher water-stress conditions.
• Prohibiting deep groundwater extraction for agriculture could lead to a 4.4-fold improvement in groundwater level recovery and subsidence mitigation.

Contributions

• Provides novel insights into the co-evolution of groundwater levels and land subsidence under future development, climate change, and groundwater management, addressing a gap in existing research.
• Quantifies the relative impacts of water demand, water diversion, and climate change on future groundwater levels and subsidence.
• Highlights the significant role of large-scale water transfer projects and policy interventions (e.g., prohibiting deep groundwater extraction) in mitigating land subsidence.
• Emphasizes the importance of technology, policy, and optimized water diversion for managing groundwater levels and mitigating subsidence under future uncertainties.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Li2025Modeling,
  author = {Li, Hongkai and Guo, Zhilin and Chen, Kewei and Zhan, Yang and Wang, Yushan and Chen, Ding and Lu, Chunhui and Zheng, Chunmiao},
  title = {Modeling Land Subsidence Under Future Water Stress: The Influence of Groundwater Exploitation, Climate Change, and Inter‐Basin Water Diversion},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr041105},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041105}
}