Carter et al. (2025) Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-24
• Authors: Vachel A. Carter, Kirsten Paff, Darin Comeau, Kurt Solander, Travis Pitts, Stephen Price, Chonggang Xu
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-67862-7

Research Groups

• Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
• Computing and Artificial Intelligence Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
• Global Security Directorate, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
• Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

Short Summary

This study quantifies the impact of drought on global maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production by 2050 using a process-based crop model and an Earth system model, integrating socio-economic factors into a food insecurity index. It finds modest global average losses but significant country-level reductions (over 10% in 62 countries) and identifies regions most vulnerable to food insecurity.

Objective

• To quantify the isolated impact of drought on global-scale production of maize, soybean, rice, and wheat by 2050, considering CO₂ fertilization and other factors, and to assess country-specific food insecurity by integrating these impacts with socio-economic vulnerabilities.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global and country levels, with model simulations at a spatial resolution of 0.94° by 1.25°.
• Temporal Scale: Historical simulations from 1850 to 2014, and future projections from 2015 to 2050, with a focus on mid-century (2040–2050).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5), a process-based crop model based on the AgroIBIS model.
  • Four Earth System Models (ESMs) for climate forcings: GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and UKESM-1-0-LL from the CMIP6 archive.
• Data sources:
  • Climate forcings: CMIP6 archive under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.
  • Historical climate forcing: Global Surface Wetness Project dataset (GSWP3).
  • Crop area: CMIP6 Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) dataset.
  • Rainfed/irrigated production: Portman et al. dataset.
  • Model validation: Global Agro-Ecological Zone project (GAEZ).
  • Socio-economic data for food insecurity index: World Bank (Gross Domestic Product per capita, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism percentile rank), United Nations (projected population growth), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (food price inflation, detailed trade matrix for crop imports/exports).

Main Results

• Globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are projected to be less than 2% by 2050.
• Soybean shows the highest globally averaged losses at 3.6%, while rice exhibits the lowest sensitivity to drought.
• At the country level, 62 countries are projected to experience maximum production losses exceeding 10%, and 24 countries exceeding 20% by mid-century (2040–2050).
• Maximum country-level production losses due to drought can be severe: up to 92.7% for soybean (average 16.4%), 76.0% for maize (average 11.2%), 67.3% for rice (average 12.5%), and 64.4% for wheat (average 11.6%).
• The developed food insecurity index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, Russia, and Australia.
• Countries most vulnerable to food insecurity are typically those with a high drought impact coupled with lower Gross Domestic Product, larger projected population growth, higher inflation rates, and higher political instability.

Contributions

This study uniquely employs a process-based crop model (CLM5) within an Earth system model to isolate and quantify the impact of drought on future global-scale production of major staple crops (maize, soybean, rice, wheat) while explicitly accounting for CO₂ fertilization effects and other confounding factors. It further develops a novel food insecurity index by comprehensively integrating these drought impacts with country-level socio-economic factors (Gross Domestic Product, population growth, trade, inflation, and political instability) to identify vulnerable regions and inform adaptation strategies.

Funding

• Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (project numbers 20240729DI and 20230864PRD3).
• Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic project, supported by the Biological and Environmental Research program in the United States Department of Energy’s Office of Science.

Citation

@article{Carter2025Impact,
  author = {Carter, Vachel A. and Paff, Kirsten and Comeau, Darin and Solander, Kurt and Pitts, Travis and Price, Stephen and Xu, Chonggang},
  title = {Impact of drought on global food security by 2050},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-025-67862-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67862-7}
}