Jana (2025) Developing high-resolution data to assess spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological drought in India (1981–2021)

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-08-19
• Authors: Arup Jana
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-13889-1

Research Groups

Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India

Short Summary

This study developed a high-resolution (5 km) Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) dataset for India (1981–2021) to assess meteorological drought, revealing rising temperatures and precipitation, alongside an increasing frequency and severity of droughts, particularly in western and central regions.

Objective

• To explore the spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological drought across India from 1981 to 2021 by developing and validating a high-resolution (5 km) raster dataset of SPEI.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: India, with a developed SPEI dataset at 5 km spatial resolution.
• Temporal Scale: 41 years (1981–2021).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) calculation (based on Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010)
  • Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) for evapotranspiration estimation
  • Mann–Kendall test for trend analysis
  • Sen’s slope estimator test for trend magnitude quantification
• Data sources:
  • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA-5) for air temperature (0.1° resolution, approximately 11.2 km)
  • Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) for precipitation (0.05° resolution, approximately 5 km)
  • Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets for SPEI validation (approximately 50 km resolution)
  • Google Earth Engine, R, Python, Climate Data Operators, and ArcMap were used for analysis.

Main Results

• A high-resolution (5 km) SPEI dataset for India from 1981 to 2021 was developed and validated, showing strong correlations (R > 0.7) with CRU-SPEI in central and western India.
• Land surface temperatures exhibited a consistent upward trend, increasing by an estimated 0.0086 °C per year.
• Monthly precipitation also showed an increasing trend, rising by an anticipated 0.387 mm per year, with intensified monsoon seasons in recent years.
• Regions such as Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of the Northeast consistently exhibited lower SPEI values, indicating higher drought susceptibility.
• Sen’s slope analysis revealed significant decreasing trends in SPEI (indicating intensifying and more frequent droughts) in Rajasthan, western Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and northern Karnataka from 1981 to 2021.
• Temporal analysis of SPEI indicated an increasing frequency and severity of drought events over the past two decades, with notable droughts in 1999, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2017, and 2021.

Contributions

• Developed and validated a novel high-resolution (5 km) SPEI raster dataset for India, providing a more detailed understanding of meteorological drought patterns than previously available coarser datasets.
• Quantified the spatiotemporal trends in temperature, precipitation, and drought severity across India over a 41-year period (1981–2021).
• Identified specific regions in India experiencing increasing drought frequency and severity, offering crucial insights for targeted adaptation strategies and policy interventions.
• Contributes to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 by providing a nuanced understanding of regional climate trends and their impacts.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the paper.

Citation

@article{Jana2025Developing,
  author = {Jana, Arup},
  title = {Developing high-resolution data to assess spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological drought in India (1981–2021)},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-13889-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13889-1}
}