Abulaiti et al. (2025) Ecological sensitivity assessment and driving force analysis of the Tarim river basin

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-03
• Authors: Halimulati Abulaiti, Yuting Liu
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-18270-w

Research Groups

• College of Life and Geographic Sciences, Kashi University, Kashi, China
• Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Ecology of Pamirs Plateau in Xinjiang Uygur, Kashi University, Xinjiang, Kashi, China

Short Summary

This study assesses the ecological sensitivity and its driving forces in the Tarim River Basin using a 15-indicator system and the Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector model. It reveals that heat and temperature are the dominant drivers, with their synergistic interaction with land use significantly amplifying ecological sensitivity, particularly in the arid central and eastern regions.

Objective

• To comprehensively analyze the distribution of ecological sensitivity and its underlying driving factors in the Tarim River Basin to inform ecological conservation strategies and enhance the resilience and sustainable management of the basin’s ecosystems.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tarim River Basin, China, covering approximately 1.02 x 10^6 square kilometres.
• Temporal Scale: Data primarily from 1958 to 2009 for hydro-meteorological and socio-economic datasets, supplemented by MODIS data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI)
  • Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for indicator weighting
  • Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector (OPGD) model for driving force analysis
• Data sources:
  • MODIS data (MOD13Q1, MOD17A3, MOD16A3 datasets) from NASA
  • Meteorological data (precipitation, temperature) from the China Surface Climate Data Set (National Meteorological Information Center)
  • Population and land use data from the Resource and Environment Science Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data from the Geospatial Data Cloud Platform
  • Soil data from the 1:1,000,000 Soil Database of China (Nanjing Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences)
  • Hydro-meteorological and socio-economic dataset (1958–2009) from the National Glacier, Permafrost, and Desert Data Center

Main Results

• Habitat Quality: 56.53% of the basin was classified as substandard, concentrated in central-eastern deserts with high heat and aridity. Only 6.79% qualified as high-quality zones, located in northern vegetated areas.
• Single-Factor Sensitivity:
  • Remote Sensing Ecological Index: The basin showed general insensitivity to greenness and humidity but pronounced sensitivity to dryness and heat. Extremely heat-sensitive areas covered 50.62% of the basin, primarily in desert cores.
  • Topographic: 62.49% of the area exhibited insensitivity to elevation, and 70.08% of slopes were non-responsive, reflecting the dominance of arid deserts.
  • Environmental Factors: 59.28% of the area showed nominal responsiveness to precipitation (arid central/eastern deserts). Temperature sensitivity was high in the central core (6.37% extremely sensitive).
  • Human Activity: Insensitivity dominated soil type (57.59%). Road proximity showed high sensitivity (25.09% of area), while residential distance was moderately sensitive.
• Driving Force Analysis (OPGD):
  • Heat (q=0.731) and temperature (q=0.7045) were identified as the dominant drivers of ecological sensitivity, explaining over 70% of the fluctuations.
  • The synergistic interaction between heat and land use (q=0.82) significantly amplified thermal impacts, leading to an 18.3% enhancement in sensitivity.
  • In core desert regions, thermal sensitivity contributed 89.2%, with a 1 °C rise in surface temperature increasing the sensitivity index by 0.23.
  • Greenness (q=0.68), vegetation diversity (q=0.61), soil types (q=0.58), and land use (q=0.55) also exhibited high explanatory power.
  • Road distance (q=0.0218) had negligible independent influence but synergistically amplified land use pressures (q=0.71).

Contributions

• Developed a comprehensive 15-indicator system for ecological sensitivity assessment in arid river basins, integrating remote sensing indices, ecological metrics, topography, ambient variables, and anthropogenic interventions.
• Quantified the dominant natural and anthropogenic driving forces of ecological sensitivity in the Tarim River Basin using the Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector (OPGD) model, highlighting the critical role of thermal-hydrological coupling and human land modifications.
• Provided spatially explicit insights and actionable pathways for arid ecosystem governance, including recommendations for thermal buffer zones, precision irrigation, and land-use zoning controls to mitigate sensitivity hotspots.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Abulaiti2025Ecological,
  author = {Abulaiti, Halimulati and Liu, Yuting},
  title = {Ecological sensitivity assessment and driving force analysis of the Tarim river basin},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-18270-w},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-18270-w}
}