Martellozzo et al. (2025) Assessing extreme sea level rise impacts on coastal agriculture in Europe and North Africa

Identification

• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-20
• Authors: Federico Martellozzo, Matteo Dalle Vaglie, Carolina Falaguasta, Filippo Randelli, Katarzyna Negacz, Pim van Tongeren, Bas Bruning, P. Vellinga
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-31630-w

Research Groups

• University of Florence, Department of Economics and Management (DISEI)
• Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)
• The Salt Doctors

Short Summary

This study assesses the potential impacts of Extreme Sea Level Rise (ESLR) on coastal agriculture in Europe and North Africa up to 2100, revealing potential agricultural losses ranging from 800 million USD to 1.5 billion USD per year, threatening food security and economic stability.

Objective

• To map areas vulnerable to Extreme Sea Level Rise (ESLR) in Europe and the Mediterranean basin and provide an initial assessment of the economic impacts on agriculture under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, considering different inundation severity levels.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Coastal regions of Europe and North Africa, including specific macro-areas like the North Sea coasts (Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark), United Kingdom, Po Valley, western coast of France, and the Nile Delta. Resolution: 90 meters for ESLR vulnerability, 30 meters for DeltaDTM (Europe and North Africa), 0.5 meters for AHN DEM (Netherlands), 100 meters for Corine Global Land Cover, 8.5 kilometers for GAEZ crop data.
• Temporal Scale: Baseline scenario (1980–2014) and future projections for 2050 and 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Joint Research Centre (JRC) Global Extreme Sea Level projections, DeltaDTM, AHN DEM (Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland), FES2014 model (tidal elevations), Corine Global Land Cover, Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) 2015 dataset, ArcGIS Pro, Google Earth Engine (GEE), Python GDAL library. A hydrological connectivity method (cost-distance approach) was used for flood modeling, incorporating elevation, slope, and proximity to the shoreline, improving upon static "bathtub" models. Thiessen tessellation was used for spatial distribution of ESLR point data.
• Data sources: JRC Global Extreme Sea Level projections, DeltaDTM, AHN DEM, FES2014 model, Corine Global Land Cover, FAO GAEZ 2015+ (crop production data), FAOSTAT (crop prices), Climate Technology Centre & Network (coastal defenses).

Main Results

• The total area under threat from ESLR in Europe and North Africa ranges from 44,014 square kilometers to 49,849 square kilometers (median 46,614 square kilometers) in the Baseline scenario. This area is projected to increase by 18% under RCP4.5 and 35% under RCP8.5 by 2100.
• Vulnerable land cover is predominantly agricultural, with croplands accounting for 49.7% of the total impacted area, followed by natural areas (47.8%) and urban areas (2.5%). Croplands show persistent vulnerability across scenarios, while urban areas exhibit higher sensitivity to less likely, but more severe, extreme events.
• The economic impact on agriculture is estimated to be between 800 million USD and 1.5 billion USD per year over the next 100 years.
• Nations with the highest percentage loss of agricultural productivity include the Netherlands (up to 18.81% in the worst-case scenario), Libya, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, and Albania (1% to 10%).
• In terms of total agricultural economic losses, Egypt is projected to be the most impacted, followed by the Netherlands, Turkey, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Belgium.

Contributions

• This research provides a novel, large-scale assessment of Extreme Sea Level Rise (ESLR) impacts specifically on coastal agriculture in Europe and North Africa, distinguishing itself from most studies that emphasize urban and infrastructure damage.
• It utilizes a comprehensive methodological approach that integrates high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DTMs), JRC ESLR projections, and a hydrological connectivity method for flood modeling, offering a more realistic approximation of overland flood extent at a continental scale compared to simpler "bathtub" models.
• The study generates spatially explicit maps of at-risk regions and quantifies potential economic losses for specific crops and nations, providing a policy-relevant tool for identifying regions requiring urgent adaptation planning and informing mitigation strategies.

Funding

• SALAD project, funded by the ERA‐NET Cofund FOSC program (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, grant agreement No 862555).
• EUniWell Well-Being Research Incubator Programme of the EUniWell Consortium (European Universities for Wellbeing, European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, grant agreement No 101035821).

Citation

@article{Martellozzo2025Assessing,
  author = {Martellozzo, Federico and Vaglie, Matteo Dalle and Falaguasta, Carolina and Randelli, Filippo and Negacz, Katarzyna and Tongeren, Pim van and Bruning, Bas and Vellinga, P.},
  title = {Assessing extreme sea level rise impacts on coastal agriculture in Europe and North Africa},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-31630-w},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-31630-w}
}