Sarah et al. (2025) Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators

Identification

• Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-11
• Authors: Connors Sarah, Schneider Rochelle, Nalau Johanna, Hawkins Michelle, Ferdini Sofia, Ying Wang, M. Rast, Anton Krištín, Aurambout Jean-Philippe, Mark Dowell, D Brindis Claire, Gevaert Caroline, Goldberg Matti, Golden Aaron, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Krug Thelma, Leiter Timo, Loboda Tatiana, Lukorito Cromwel, M. de Agostihno Antonio, Mudau Naledzani, O. Brian, Ana L. Oliveira, Renaud Louis, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Saucy Apolline, Trisos Chris, Yolanda Ambrosio
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01251-1

Research Groups

• International Space Science Institute (ISSI)
• European Space Agency (ESA)
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
• World Adaptation Science Programme (WASP)
• Griffith University
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• European Commission Joint Research Centre
• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Technology Executive Committee
• Various other research institutions, policy bodies, and space agencies globally

Short Summary

This Perspective paper explores how space-based Earth Observation (EO) data can support tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement's Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), focusing on agriculture, biodiversity, extreme events, and health. It highlights EO's strengths and challenges, offering recommendations for integrating EO into the development of standardized, operational adaptation indicators.

Objective

• To inform the ongoing UNFCCC process by highlighting the potential contributions of the Earth Observation (EO) community and its data for tracking progress under the Paris Agreement's Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).
• To argue for the integral consideration of EO data within the GGA indicators under the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience.
• To provide a set of recommendations to stakeholders on how EO data can be enhanced to support climate adaptation action and monitoring at scale, particularly across the themes of agriculture, biodiversity, extreme events, and health.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with discussions ranging from local (metre-scale resolution for urban environments, dozens to hundreds of metres for agriculture) to national, regional, and near-global coverage.
• Temporal Scale: Decades (up to 60 years for some satellite data records), long-term continuous archives, historical (pre-Sentinel era) for baseline setting, and future missions/projections.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • IPCC Risk Framework
  • UNFCCC Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) framework
  • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework
  • FAO's Remote Sensing for Water Productivity (WaPOR) project
  • Global Water Watch (GWW) platform
  • Biomass Climate Adaptation Index (Biomass CAI) using deep learning
  • FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) for forecasts
  • Digital Twin Earth systems (e.g., Destination Earth Platform) for "what if" scenarios
  • AI/Machine Learning (ML)-driven models for various applications (e.g., crop resilience, disease forecasting)
  • EXHAUSTION project methodology for heat stress and mortality assessment
• Data sources:
  • Space-based Earth Observation (EO) data from satellites (e.g., Copernicus Sentinel missions, Meteosat, MODIS, Sentinel-3, SMOS, Landsat).
  • Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), including:
    • Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)
    • Leaf Area Index (LAI)
    • Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
    • Burned Area / Active Fires
    • Surface soil Moisture
    • Surface Radiation and Turbulent Heat Fluxes (Sensible, Latent, Storage Heat Fluxes)
    • Mole Fraction or Tropospheric Column Air quality (ozone, NOx, formaldehyde)
    • Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
    • Land Surface Temperature (LST)
    • Earth surface albedo
    • Ocean Colour
    • River Discharge (derived from altimetry and near-infrared)
    • Terrestrial Water storage (e.g., GRACE mission)
    • Ground subsidence (e.g., interferometric aperture radar)
    • Land Cover (derived from radar and optical imagery)
  • High-resolution altimetry data (e.g., Copernicus GLO-30).
  • In-situ observations (for ground truthing and complementary data).
  • Socio-economic data (e.g., population density, land use mapping, night-time lights, household surveys, censuses).
  • Historical contextual data (e.g., paleohydrology, paleodendrology, non-formal records).

Main Results

• Earth Observation (EO) data provides objective, repeatable, globally consistent, and long-term (up to 60 years) archives essential for monitoring climate variables and their impacts.
• Approximately two-thirds of the 55 GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) can be monitored using satellite data, offering critical information for characterizing climate hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.
• EO data has significant potential to support all stages of the adaptation cycle, from risk assessment to monitoring and evaluation of adaptation interventions, particularly within the themes of agriculture, biodiversity, extreme events, and health.
• Specific EO-derived indicators (e.g., FAPAR for crop yield, LST for heat exposure, River Discharge for flooding) are highly relevant for tracking progress towards various GGA targets.
• Key challenges for maximizing EO utility include establishing rigorous attribution methods for adaptation outcomes, managing vast data volumes, ensuring data interoperability and disaggregation for vulnerable populations, and integrating historical data with future projections through advanced modeling (e.g., Digital Twins).
• Drawing parallels with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) demonstrates the importance of early integration of EO expertise in indicator development to ensure a robust, globally accessible monitoring framework.
• The paper provides a comprehensive set of recommendations for the GGA process, EO agencies, and the research community to overcome existing barriers and fully leverage EO for climate adaptation.

Contributions

• This paper offers the first comprehensive exploration of how space-based Earth Observation (EO) data can systematically support the tracking of progress towards the Paris Agreement's Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).
• It synthesizes multidisciplinary expertise from research, policy, and space agencies to highlight both the strengths and challenges of integrating EO into GGA indicator development across critical sectors (agriculture, biodiversity, extreme events, and health).
• The study provides a unique set of actionable recommendations for the UNFCCC GGA process, EO agencies, and the scientific community, aiming to enhance the operationalization, standardization, and utility of EO data for adaptation monitoring at scale.
• By drawing parallels with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the paper offers valuable lessons and best practices for effectively integrating EO into global indicator frameworks from their inception.
• It identifies key knowledge gaps and research needs to further advance EO's efficacy in supporting climate adaptation actions, particularly concerning high-resolution data, continuity of observations, novel missions, and bias assessment for vulnerable populations.

Funding

• International Space Science Institute (ISSI) for hosting and funding the Forum "Using Earth Observation Systems to Improve Climate Adaptation Policy and Action" (Bern, Switzerland, June 25–28, 2024).

Citation

@article{Sarah2025Earth,
  author = {Sarah, Connors and Rochelle, Schneider and Johanna, Nalau and Michelle, Hawkins and Sofia, Ferdini and Wang, Ying and Rast, M. and Krištín, Anton and Jean-Philippe, Aurambout and Dowell, Mark and Claire, D Brindis and Caroline, Gevaert and Matti, Goldberg and Aaron, Golden and Kruczkiewicz, Andrew and Thelma, Krug and Timo, Leiter and Tatiana, Loboda and Cromwel, Lukorito and Antonio, M. de Agostihno and Naledzani, Mudau and Brian, O. and Oliveira, Ana L. and Louis, Renaud and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Apolline, Saucy and Chris, Trisos and Ambrosio, Yolanda},
  title = {Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators},
  journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s41612-025-01251-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01251-1}
}