Jiang et al. (2025) Crop water origins and hydroclimate vulnerability of global croplands

Identification

• Journal: Nature Sustainability
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-24
• Authors: Yan Jiang, Jennifer Burney
• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01662-1

Research Groups

• School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
• Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

Short Summary

This study uses satellite-derived water isotope observations and physical models to trace atmospheric moisture origins for global rain-fed crops, revealing that regions heavily dependent on land-originating moisture (fraction of land-originating rainwater, f ≥ 36%) are significantly more vulnerable to hydroclimate stress and drought, impacting major staple crops.

Objective

• To trace the atmospheric moisture origins (oceanic vs. terrestrial) for major global rain-fed crops from 2003 to 2019.
• To assess the hydroclimate vulnerability of global croplands based on their dependence on land-originating moisture.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global croplands
• Temporal Scale: 2003 to 2019

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Physical models (for tracing atmospheric moisture origins using water isotopes); Statistical models (for relating crop greenness to hydrological parameters and assessing drought sensitivity); Neural networks (for CSIF product generation).
• Data sources:
  • Satellite-derived water isotope observations (AIRS, TES products)
  • Cropland maps (GLAD)
  • Crop calendar datasets (SAGE)
  • Near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) from MODIS (MCD43A4)
  • Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (CSIF)
  • Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) datasets for evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture (RZSM)
  • Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)
  • Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) for precipitation data

Main Results

• The fraction of rainwater originating from land (f) varies geographically and seasonally across global croplands.
• A critical threshold for f was identified at approximately 36%.
• Regions with higher f (i.e., f ≥ 36%), indicating greater dependence on land-originating water, are more susceptible to insufficient rainwater supply and soil moisture deficits during the main growing season.
• Crops in these high-f regions exhibit increased sensitivity to hydroclimate, showing reduced productivity in lower-rainfall years and a higher likelihood of drought.
• More than 40% of global maize and over 60% of winter wheat are cultivated in regions where rainfall is heavily dependent on land-originating moisture (f ≥ 36%), highlighting their vulnerability to hydroclimate stress.

Contributions

• First study to utilize satellite-derived water isotope observations to comprehensively trace atmospheric moisture origins for major global rain-fed crops.
• Quantifies the hydroclimate vulnerability of global croplands based on the terrestrial contribution to precipitation, identifying a critical threshold (f ≈ 36%).
• Provides a novel indicator (f) for assessing crop hydrological sensitivity and drought risk at a global scale.
• Highlights the importance of managing local land moisture sources for agricultural resilience and identifies specific regions where targeted water management strategies would be most effective.

Funding

• US National Science Foundation (NSF INFEWS #1639318)
• Center for Global Transformation at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy

Citation

@article{Jiang2025Crop,
  author = {Jiang, Yan and Burney, Jennifer},
  title = {Crop water origins and hydroclimate vulnerability of global croplands},
  journal = {Nature Sustainability},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s41893-025-01662-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01662-1}
}

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