Yuan et al. (2025) Impacts of rising atmospheric dryness on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle

Identification

• Journal: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-06
• Authors: Wenping Yuan, Jie Tian, Mei Wang, Shuo Wang, Wenfang Xu, Yin Wang, Zheng Fu, Martin P. Girardin, Julia K. Green, Sha Zhou, Jiali Shang, Bin He, Miao Huang, Menglong Liu, Haibo Lü, Shilong Piao, Yamin Qing, Meimei Xue, Chaoqing Song, Yongxian Su, Walid Sadok, Yao Zhang, Xiuzhi Chen
• DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00726-2

Research Groups

• Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
• Guangdong Province Data Center of Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems Carbon Cycle, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China
• Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
• South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
• Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
• Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
• Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
• Institute of Land Surface Systems and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
• Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
• State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
• Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China
• State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA

Short Summary

This review synthesizes historical and projected trends in atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and its mechanisms affecting the terrestrial carbon cycle, revealing a global increase in VPD since the late 1990s and observed reductions in key carbon cycle components, while highlighting challenges in attribution and model limitations.

Objective

• To synthesize historical and projected trends in atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD), a proxy for atmospheric dryness, and the mechanisms by which it affects the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global terrestrial ecosystems.
• Temporal Scale: Historical trends (since late 1990s, 1982–2015, 2001–2020, 1982–2013) and projected changes (2015–2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: This review synthesizes findings from studies utilizing various terrestrial carbon cycle models and discusses their predictive capabilities and limitations. Projections are based on CMIP6 dataset.
• Data sources: Synthesis of findings from studies using:
  • Climate Research Unit (CRU) for air temperature and atmospheric vapour pressure (AVP).
  • TerraClimate data for annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.
  • Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) for leaf area index and gross primary production.
  • Trendy data for net ecosystem production (NEP).
  • Global Land Cover Change (GLC_FCS) dataset.
  • FLUXNET2015 eddy covariance observations.
  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset for projections.

Main Results

• Global mean VPD has increased at a mean rate of 0.0155 ± 0.0041 hPa yr⁻¹ since the late 1990s.
• Observed global VPD-driven reductions include:
  • Leaf area index: 0.11 ± 0.07 m² m⁻² hPa⁻¹ (1982–2015).
  • Gross primary production: 13.82 ± 3.12 PgC hPa⁻¹ (1982–2015).
  • Light use efficiency: 0.04 ± 0.02 gC MJ⁻¹ hPa⁻¹ (2001–2020).
  • Net ecosystem production: 5.59 ± 1.15 PgC hPa⁻¹ (1982–2013).
• Attributing changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle solely to VPD is challenging due to confounding environmental factors like soil moisture, temperature, and radiation.
• Mechanisms underlying plant responses to VPD (stomatal closure, hydraulic failure, abscisic acid biosynthesis, and cascading effects on fires and soil moisture deficits) are poorly constrained, limiting the predictive capabilities of terrestrial carbon cycle models.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive synthesis of historical and projected trends in atmospheric dryness (VPD) and its multifaceted impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle.
• Quantifies the global sensitivity of key carbon cycle components (LAI, GPP, LUE, NEP) to rising VPD based on observed data.
• Identifies critical challenges in attributing carbon cycle changes to VPD due to confounding factors.
• Highlights the poor constraint of underlying plant physiological mechanisms in response to VPD, which limits the accuracy of current terrestrial carbon cycle models.
• Proposes future research priorities, including establishing global VPD-manipulation experiments and integrating improved mechanistic understanding into models.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42471326, 42141020; 41971275)
• National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2024YFF1306600)
• Science and Technology Program of Guangdong (No. 2024B1212070012)

Citation

@article{Yuan2025Impacts,
  author = {Yuan, Wenping and Tian, Jie and Wang, Mei and Wang, Shuo and Xu, Wenfang and Wang, Yin and Fu, Zheng and Girardin, Martin P. and Green, Julia K. and Zhou, Sha and Shang, Jiali and He, Bin and Huang, Miao and Liu, Menglong and Lü, Haibo and Piao, Shilong and Qing, Yamin and Xue, Meimei and Song, Chaoqing and Su, Yongxian and Sadok, Walid and Zhang, Yao and Chen, Xiuzhi},
  title = {Impacts of rising atmospheric dryness on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle},
  journal = {Nature Reviews Earth & Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s43017-025-00726-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00726-2}
}