Kuang et al. (2025) Climate change accelerates the evolution of reorganized river-lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-29
• Authors: Xinya Kuang, Shanlong Lu, Liping Zhu, Jiahua Wei, Yaokui Cui, Guoqiang Shi, Xidong Chen, Xinru Li
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02865-2

Research Groups

• International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
• University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Qinghai University
• Tsinghua University
• Qinghai Provincial Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau
• School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong
• Future Urbanity & Sustainable Environment (FUSE) Lab, Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong

Short Summary

This study reveals how climate change has accelerated the reorganization of the Zonag and Yanhu Lake drainage basins on the Tibetan Plateau, leading to their connection with the Yangtze River headwaters since 2019, with significant ecological and socio-economic consequences including increased flood risks and sandstorms.

Objective

• To document and analyze the impact of the connection between the Zonag and Yanhu Lake inland water system and the Yangtze River outflow system on regional hydrology and ecosystems, driven by both natural failure and artificial drainage.
• To enhance understanding of the interconnected impacts of climate change and hydrological evolution, providing insights into risk mitigation and sustainable management strategies for high-altitude regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Zonag and Yanhu Lake drainage basins, Hoh Xil region, Tibetan Plateau (UNESCO World Natural Heritage site).
• Temporal Scale: Long-term analysis from 1986 to 2024, with specific event analysis in 2011, 2019, and 2024, and future climate projections up to 2035.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • XGBoost-SHAP model (for explanatory analysis of nonlinear relationships and feature contributions).
  • SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model (for forecasting precipitation and temperature).
  • Degree-day factor (DDF) and sum of positive accumulated temperatures (PDD) for glacier meltwater calculation.
  • Area-volume relationship equations for lake water volume calculation.
  • Segment Anything Model (SAM) for image segmentation.
• Data sources:
  • Field observations.
  • Satellite remote sensing: Landsat 8 and 9 (USGS), Gaofen-2 (China Centre for Resources Satellite Data and Application), MODIS (Terra and Aqua satellites, NASA).
  • Climate data: Wudaoliang National Meteorological Station, Qinghai Province, China (1961-2024 precipitation and temperature).
  • Hydrological data: Database for Hydrological Time Series of Inland Waters (DAHITI) for Zonag Lake water level (2016-2024).
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (30 m spatial resolution).
  • Derived indices: Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), Normalized-Difference Snow Index (NDSI).

Main Results

• Since 2019, the previously endorheic Zonag and Yanhu Lakes have connected to the headwaters of the Yangtze River, expanding its basin, driven by a natural lake breach in 2011 and artificial drainage in 2019.
• From 1986 to 2024, the total water area and volume of lakes in the basin consistently increased (average annual growth rates of 0.83% and 0.95%, respectively), while glacier area decreased (average annual reduction of 0.33%) and meltwater increased (average annual growth rate of 2.51%).
• Temperature (Spearman's r = 0.96 with glacial meltwater) and precipitation (Spearman's r = 0.58 with lake area) are identified as key meteorological drivers of lake expansion and glacier retreat.
• Extreme precipitation events (e.g., May 2024 monthly precipitation of 88.6 mm, 195% above average) cause rapid lake level rise and outlet erosion, increasing downstream flood risk (e.g., Yanhu Lake expanded by 1.92 km² in 2024 after such an event).
• Lake shoreline retreat (e.g., Zonag Lake shoreline retreated by 121.8 m in 2021 and 156.1 m in 2024 compared to 2015) has exposed approximately 103 km² of lakebed sediments, leading to a significant increase in sandstorm frequency since 2017 (exceeding 20% of observation days annually).
• Climate projections indicate persistent hydrological and ecological instability, with continuous, moderate upward trends in precipitation and temperature through 2035.
• Potential disaster risks include secondary lake outbursts, destruction of critical infrastructure (e.g., Qinghai-Tibet Railway), permafrost thawing, and alteration of water quality in the Yangtze River headwaters due to saline water discharge (TDS of Qingshui River increased from 2689 mg/L to 5384 mg/L).

Contributions

• Advances scientific understanding of hydrological reorganization in high-altitude endorheic basins under combined climate change and human intervention, supporting a "climate stress–system response" model.
• Documents the transition from isolated endorheic systems to an interconnected network on the Tibetan Plateau, with broad implications for downstream water security and ecological stability.
• Provides essential insights for developing adaptive management strategies, including structural interventions (e.g., reinforcing lake outlets) and ecological measures (e.g., gravel cover for shore protection), in climate-vulnerable regions.
• Highlights the complex interactions between natural processes and human activity in shaping high-altitude water systems, serving as a crucial reference for water resource managers and the scientific community.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 42171283)
• National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFE0117800)
• Major Science and Technology Project of Qinghai Province (2021-SF-A6)
• Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (2019QZKK0202)

Citation

@article{Kuang2025Climate,
  author = {Kuang, Xinya and Lu, Shanlong and Zhu, Liping and Wei, Jiahua and Cui, Yaokui and Hughes, Alice C. and Shi, Guoqiang and Chen, Xidong and Li, Xinru},
  title = {Climate change accelerates the evolution of reorganized river-lake systems on the Tibetan Plateau},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-02865-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02865-2}
}