Wang et al. (2025) Enhanced tropical cyclone precipitation variability is linked to Pacific Decadal Oscillation since the 1940s

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-22
• Authors: C. Wang, Keyan Fang, Feifei Zhou, Jiani Gao, Sergio Rossi, K. Liu, Zhipeng Dong, César Azorín-Molina, Shuheng Lin, J. Julio Camarero, Peng Wu, Hao Wu, Hans W. Linderholm, Zepeng Mei, Jan Altman
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-03129-9

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Process (Ministry of Education), College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China
• Département des Sciences Fondamentales, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, Chicoutimi, QC, Canada
• Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
• Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana), Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab), Moncada, Valencia, Spain
• Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain
• School of Science, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, China
• State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, China
• Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
• Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň, Czech Republic
• Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic

Short Summary

This study establishes latewood width in coastal conifers as an effective proxy for tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in southeastern China, reconstructing July-September TCP from 1846 to 2020 and revealing a marked increase in its interannual variability since the 1940s, linked to enhanced Pacific Decadal Oscillation variability.

Objective

• To reconstruct tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in southeastern China using tree-ring latewood width, filling a critical gap in understanding its variability and response to climate warming in the Northwest Pacific.
• To establish a novel link between wood formation processes (latewood width) and extreme climatic events (TCP).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southeastern China (Fujian province, western Taiwan Strait), located within the Northwest Pacific, the most active tropical cyclone basin. Sampling sites are situated between 24°-27°N and 116°-120°E.
• Temporal Scale:
  • TCP reconstruction: 1846 to 2020 (175 years).
  • Xylem growth monitoring: 2021 to 2023.
  • Instrumental TCP records: 1954 to 2020.
  • Climate data (SST, VWS, W500): 1870 to 2020/2015.
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index: 1870 to 2020 (instrumental) and historical reconstruction.
  • Analysis of variability changes since the 1940s.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) growth model (process-based tree growth model)
  • Random forest regression model (for TCP reconstruction)
  • Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model (for extreme event analysis)
  • Gompertz function (for xylem growth dynamics)
• Data sources:
  • Multi-year monitoring of xylem cell formation from Pinus massoniana trees at Chang’anshan Mountain, Fujian province.
  • Tree-ring latewood width chronologies from Pinus massoniana at five coastal sites in Fujian Province.
  • Historical tropical cyclone best-track data from the China Meteorological Administration.
  • Daily precipitation and air temperature data from Fuzhou meteorological station and other nearby stations.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) data from the HadISST1 dataset (1°×1° spatial resolution).
  • Instrumental Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index from HadISST1.1 and a synthesized historical PDO reconstruction.
  • Vertical wind shear (VWS) and 500-hPa vertical velocity (W500) from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) (1°×1° resolution).

Main Results

• Latewood width in coastal conifers (Pinus massoniana) is demonstrated to be an effective proxy for July-September tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in southeastern China.
• A robust reconstruction of July-September TCP from 1846 to 2020 was developed, explaining 62.6% of the observed variance in instrumental records (R² of 0.721 for training, 0.526 for testing).
• The reconstruction reveals a marked increase in interannual TCP variability in southeastern China since the 1940s, with current TCP variability exceeding historical levels.
• This enhanced TCP variability is closely associated with heightened variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) during the same period.
• The influence of PDO on TCP has strengthened since the mid-20th century, reflecting an amplification of PDO impacts under global warming.
• During negative PDO phases, TCP is promoted in southeastern China due to an expanded Western Pacific Warm Pool, increased sea surface temperatures, and a westward-shifted West Pacific Subtropical High.
• Post-1940s, differences in linear regression coefficients of SST anomalies onto PDO show a strengthened PDO-induced warming across the tropical and subtropical Pacific, accompanied by decreased vertical wind shear and intensified upward motions over the western Pacific, creating favorable conditions for enhanced TCP variability.

Contributions

• Provides physiological evidence linking tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) to intra-annual tree-ring dynamics (specifically latewood width).
• Establishes tree rings as a novel, high-resolution proxy for tropical cyclone reconstructions and climate risk assessment across the Pacific Rim, addressing a critical gap in southeastern China.
• Offers a long-term (1846-2020) baseline of TCP variability in the Northwest Pacific, crucial for understanding its response to climate warming.
• Reveals a mechanism linking ocean-atmosphere variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and land-based growth processes (tree rings) to explain the intensification of hydroclimatic extremes.
• Contributes critical baseline information for improving regional disaster preparedness strategies in the Pacific Rim.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42425101 and 42301058)
• Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development (LARH24JBO7)
• Czech Science Foundation (Grant 23-05272S)
• Czech Academy of Sciences (long-term research development project No. RVO 67985939)

Citation

@article{Wang2025Enhanced,
  author = {Wang, C. and Fang, Keyan and Zhou, Feifei and Gao, Jiani and Rossi, Sergio and Liu, K. and Dong, Zhipeng and Azorín-Molina, César and Lin, Shuheng and Camarero, J. Julio and Wu, Peng and Wu, Hao and Linderholm, Hans W. and Mei, Zepeng and Altman, Jan},
  title = {Enhanced tropical cyclone precipitation variability is linked to Pacific Decadal Oscillation since the 1940s},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-03129-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03129-9}
}