Yao et al. (2025) Irrigation-induced land water depletion aggravated by climate change

Identification

• Journal: Nature Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-05
• Authors: Yi Yao, Wim Thiery, Agnès Ducharne, Benjamin I. Cook, Anxin Ding, Steven De Hertog, Petra Sieber, Kjetil Schanke, Pedro F. Arboleda-Obando, Jeanne Colin, Maya Costantini, Bertrand Decharme, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, L. Ruby Leung, Min‐Hui Lo, N. Devaraju, Ren-Jie Wu, Tian Zhou, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sonali McDermid, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, Tokuta Yokohata, Lukas Gudmundsson, Sonia I. Seneviratne
• DOI: 10.1038/s44221-025-00529-1

Research Groups

• Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
• Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
• Laboratory 7619 METIS, Sorbonne Université, France
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
• Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA
• School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, China
• Q-ForestLab, Department of Environment, Universiteit Gent, Belgium
• CICERO - Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
• Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, France
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
• Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, USA
• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
• Advanced Computing Facility Unit, CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland
• Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
• Department of Environmental Studies, New York University, New York, NY, USA
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
• Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
• National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Short Summary

This study uses seven Earth System Models to analyze the effects of historical irrigation expansion on global water fluxes and resources. It reveals that irrigation expansion significantly decreases the net water influx from the atmosphere to land, thereby exacerbating existing drying trends caused by climate change and leading to substantial terrestrial water storage depletion.

Objective

• To quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion (1901–2014) on water fluxes and resources, considering land–atmosphere interactions, using Earth System Models.
• To separate the effects of irrigation expansion from other climate forcings and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and terrestrial water storage to understand the evolution of land water availability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on four climate reference regions: South Asia, Mediterranean, Central North America, and West Central Asia. Model outputs were regridded to 0.9° × 1.25° for consistency, with some original resolutions ranging from 0.5° × 0.5° to 1.4° × 1.4°. Satellite data (GRACE) at 0.25° × 0.25°.
• Temporal Scale: Simulations cover the period 1901–2014. Satellite observations (GRACE) cover April 2002 to February 2024. Analysis periods include 1901–1930 and 1985–2014, and six 19-year periods.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the IRRigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP): CESM2, CESM2_gw, NorESM2, E3SMv2, MIROC-INTEG-ES, IPSL-CM6, and CNRM-CM6-1. These models performed land–atmosphere coupled simulations with transient land use and management.
• Data sources:
  • Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset for transient irrigation extent.
  • GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) anomaly data (RL0602 product).
  • AQUASTAT census data for groundwater irrigation area (used by IPSL-CM6).
  • External global hydrological model simulations for irrigation water flux (used by CNRM-CM6-1).

Main Results

• Global irrigated area expanded 5.4-fold from approximately 0.5 million square kilometers in 1901 to 2.7 million square kilometers in 2014.
• Global irrigation water withdrawal (IWW) increased from 200–500 cubic kilometers per year in 1901 to 900–4,000 cubic kilometers per year in 2014.
• Irrigation expansion substantially decreases the net water influx from the atmosphere to land (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P − ET). For example, in South Asia after 1960, irrigation expansion changed the P − ET trend from −0.664 (± 0.283) millimeters per year squared to −1.461 (± 0.261) millimeters per year squared.
• The local terrestrial water storage (TWS) depletion rate is significantly enlarged by irrigation expansion. In South Asia, the TWS depletion rate increased from −2.559 (± 0.094) millimeters per year to −16.008 (± 0.557) millimeters per year after 1960.
• Irrigation considerably enhances evapotranspiration, particularly in drier regions like West Central Asia. In the 1996–2014 period, multi-model mean evapotranspiration increased by 58.2 millimeters per year in South Asia and 36.9 millimeters per year in West Central Asia due to irrigation.
• The decrease in P − ET and TWS is widespread across many irrigation hotspots globally, including the Southwest USA, Mediterranean, West Central Asia, North India, and North China Plain.
• ESMs that explicitly account for groundwater withdrawal show a substantial decline in TWS due to irrigation, whereas models without this feature do not.

Contributions

• This study is the first to use multiple Earth System Models (ESMs) with land–atmosphere coupled simulations and transient land use/management to quantify the global impacts of historical irrigation expansion on water resources.
• It provides a novel separation of the effects of irrigation expansion from other historical climate forcings, revealing that irrigation significantly aggravates climate change-induced drying trends by reducing net atmospheric water input to land.
• The research highlights that irrigation-induced water depletion is a common and intensifying issue in many irrigation hotspot areas globally, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, emphasizing the combined impact of irrigation expansion and climate change.
• It underscores the urgent water scarcity situation in regions like the Mediterranean and West Central Asia, even if they are not the most intensely irrigated globally.

Funding

• VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation–Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government–department EWI.
• BELSPO (B2/223/P1/DAMOCO).
• Office of Science, US Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling (WACCEM) scientific focus area.
• Regional and Global Model Analysis programme area (DOE).
• E3SM project through the Earth System Model Development programme area (DOE).
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (number 42301363).
• Anhui Province Youth Science and Technology Talent Lift Program (number RCTJ202404).
• Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation (number 2308085QD118).
• National Science Foundation (awards 2127643 and 2324837).
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) Climate Impacts Group.
• Future of Life Institute.
• US Department of Agriculture.
• European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon Framework research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 101076909; ‘LACRIMA’ project).
• JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) (grant number 22K14101).

Citation

@article{Yao2025Irrigationinduced,
  author = {Yao, Yi and Thiery, Wim and Ducharne, Agnès and Cook, Benjamin I. and Ding, Anxin and Hertog, Steven De and Sieber, Petra and Schanke, Kjetil and Arboleda-Obando, Pedro F. and Colin, Jeanne and Costantini, Maya and Decharme, Bertrand and Lawrence, David M. and Lawrence, Peter and Leung, L. Ruby and Lo, Min‐Hui and Devaraju, N. and Wu, Ren-Jie and Zhou, Tian and Jägermeyr, Jonas and McDermid, Sonali and Pokhrel, Yadu and Satoh, Yusuke and Yokohata, Tokuta and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
  title = {Irrigation-induced land water depletion aggravated by climate change},
  journal = {Nature Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1038/s44221-025-00529-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00529-1}
}