Amouch et al. (2025) Recent and future trend of drought in the Context of climate change: Southwest of Morocco (Guelmim-Sidi Ifni and Agadir)

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Identification

• Journal: Springer Link (Chiba Institute of Technology)
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-11
• Authors: Said Amouch, Soukaina Talha, Oualid Besbou, Marouane Akdim, Ahmed Bouajaj
• DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202567501009/pdf

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes historical drought patterns and projects future dry and wet episodes in southwest Morocco using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the HadGEM2 climate model, revealing significant past droughts and forecasting extended future dry periods.

Objective

• To analyze historical drought patterns and project future dry and wet episodes in southwest Morocco using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southwest Morocco, specifically the Agadir, Guelmim, and Sidi Ifni stations.
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1973-2020 for Agadir, 1985-2017 for Guelmim, 1983-2020 for Sidi Ifni) and Future (2022-2099).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), HadGEM2 (for future forecasts).
• Data sources: Rainfall time series from Agadir, Guelmim, and Sidi Ifni stations.

Main Results

• The driest historical periods identified by SPI were 1981-1986, 1992-1994, and 1997-2000.
• Future SPI forecasts (2022-2099) using the HadGEM2 model indicate several extended dry and wet episodes.
• The longest projected drought is expected between 2090 and 2093.
• A decreasing trend in precipitation and the number of rainy days was observed for all three studied stations.

Contributions

• Provides an initial basis for hydro-meteorological research and drought surveillance in southwest Morocco.
• Offers foundational data for environmental management initiatives in the region by quantifying historical and projecting future drought/wet patterns.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Amouch2025Recent,
  author = {Amouch, Said and Talha, Soukaina and Besbou, Oualid and Akdim, Marouane and Bouajaj, Ahmed},
  title = {Recent and future trend of drought in the Context of climate change: Southwest of Morocco (Guelmim-Sidi Ifni and Agadir)},
  journal = {Springer Link (Chiba Institute of Technology)},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1051/e3sconf/202567501009/pdf},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202567501009/pdf}
}