Sharples et al. (2025) Australia’s changing hydroclimate extremes

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-26
• Authors: Wendy Sharples, Ulrike Bende‐Michl, S. Sharmila, Christopher Pickett‐Heaps, Navid Ghajarnia, Lynette Bettio, David J. Martin, Katayoon Bahramian, Jiawei Hou, Elisabetta Carrara
• DOI: 10.1071/es24042

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study examines past and future changes in Australia's hydroclimate extremes, revealing current drying trends in southern and central regions, an increasing link between natural disasters and compound events, and projections of more frequent 'hot and dry' and 'wet and windy' extremes across all regions, leading to heightened risks of droughts, fires, and floods.

Objective

• Assess hydroclimate anomalies across Australia from 1963–2022.
• Explore compound events and their link to natural disasters in Australia from 1993–2022.
• Project future compound events under wet, dry, and mid-range climate storylines, comparing 1976–2005 with 2036–2065.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The continent of Australia, encompassing diverse hydroclimate regions (e.g., wet tropics, arid central rangelands, southern, central, and northern regions).
• Temporal Scale:
  • Hydroclimate anomaly assessment: 60 years (1963–2022).
  • Compound events and disaster exploration: 30 years (1993–2022).
  • Future projections: Comparison of two 30-year periods (1976–2005 as baseline vs. 2036–2065 for future).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified in the provided text, but implied climate models for future projections under different storylines.
• Data sources: Not specified in the provided text, but implied observational data and potentially reanalysis for historical hydroclimate anomaly assessment and compound event analysis, and climate model outputs for future projections.

Main Results

• Southern and some central regions of Australia currently exhibit drying trends in precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture, concurrent with rising temperatures.
• Natural disasters are increasingly associated with compound events, which are observed to be on the rise.
• Future projections indicate an increased frequency of 'hot and dry' and 'wet and windy' extremes across all Australian regions under at least one climate storyline.
• These projections suggest larger-scale droughts, longer fire seasons, and more extreme fire danger days across most of Australia.
• Under the wet storyline, northern and central regions are projected to experience heavier rainfall, storms, and stronger winds, signaling an increased risk of flooding due to extreme runoff.
• Australia’s hydroclimate extremes are changing and compounding, with significant implications for communities and disaster preparedness.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of both historical and projected future changes in Australia's hydroclimate extremes across its diverse regions.
• Highlights the escalating link between compound extreme events and natural disasters, emphasizing their increasing frequency.
• Offers critical insights into future risks of droughts, fires, and floods by projecting 'hot and dry' and 'wet and windy' extremes under various climate scenarios.
• Underscores the urgent need for enhanced disaster preparedness and adaptation strategies for Australian communities.

Funding

Not mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sharples2025Australias,
  author = {Sharples, Wendy and Bende‐Michl, Ulrike and Sharmila, S. and Pickett‐Heaps, Christopher and Ghajarnia, Navid and Bettio, Lynette and Martin, David J. and Bahramian, Katayoon and Hou, Jiawei and Carrara, Elisabetta},
  title = {Australia’s changing hydroclimate extremes},
  journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1071/es24042},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/es24042}
}