Lozano‐Parra (2025) Exploring the aridity risk in agricultural lands of southwest Spain: the Extremadura region

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Identification

• Journal: Geomatics Natural Hazards and Risk
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-03
• Authors: Javier Lozano‐Parra
• DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2025.2594094

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This study quantified future climate variations and aridification trends in irrigated and rainfed agricultural areas of southwestern Spain using CMIP6 projections. It found a strong aridification trend characterized by significant precipitation decline, temperature increase, and a widespread shift towards semi-arid and arid conditions, necessitating urgent adaptive measures.

Objective

• To quantify temporal and spatial climate variations in irrigated and rainfed agricultural areas of southwestern Spain using high-resolution gridded datasets and meteorological records from CMIP6 projections.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southwestern Spain, specifically Extremadura, focusing on irrigated and rainfed agricultural lands.
• Temporal Scale: Historical baseline (1970–2000) compared with four future periods (2021–2100) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 projections, Budyko framework.
• Data sources: High-resolution gridded datasets, meteorological records from CMIP6 projections.

Main Results

• Precipitation is projected to decline in both irrigated and rainfed areas, with decreases up to -20% by 2081–2100 under SSP5-8.5, and local reductions exceeding 200 mm in irrigated areas with complex topography.
• Mean temperatures are projected to increase similarly in both agricultural systems by approximately 6 °C.
• The aridity index indicates a shift in irrigated lands from predominantly Mediterranean to semi-arid and arid, with over 80% classified as arid by the late century under SSP5-8.5. Rainfed lands are projected to shift by 60% to arid conditions.
• Budyko-based analysis shows decreasing runoff generation due to increasing potential evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation.
• These findings confirm a strong aridification trend across the study region.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed assessment of climate variability and aridification trends specifically for agricultural lands in southwestern Spain (Extremadura), addressing a region where such detailed studies were previously limited.
• Quantifies future hydroclimatic changes (precipitation, temperature, aridity, runoff generation) in both irrigated and rainfed systems using high-resolution gridded datasets and CMIP6 projections.
• Emphasizes the urgent need for adaptive water management, resilient cropping systems, and climate-informed agricultural policies in response to the projected aridification.

Funding

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{LozanoParra2025Exploring,
  author = {Lozano‐Parra, Javier},
  title = {Exploring the aridity risk in agricultural lands of southwest Spain: the Extremadura region},
  journal = {Geomatics Natural Hazards and Risk},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1080/19475705.2025.2594094},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2025.2594094}
}

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