Gao et al. (2025) The exposure threat of wet heat extremes is substantially increasing to the 65+ elderly population in Asia

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-19
• Authors: Hui Gao, Ting Ding, Tiejun Xie
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae0958

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study analyzes past trends (2001-2020) and projects future exposure (2030-2100) to wet heatwaves across Asia, particularly focusing on the elderly population. It finds a significant increase in wet heatwave days and projected exposure, with population growth contributing more than climate change to the heightened exposure.

Objective

• To quantify the historical increase in wet heatwave days across Asia (2001-2020), especially concerning the elderly population.
• To project the future increase in exposure to wet heatwaves in various Asian regions (2030-2100) relative to 2001-2020.
• To determine the relative contributions of rising temperature and population growth (aged 65+) to the increased exposure to wet heatwaves.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental Asia, with regional breakdowns including West Asia (WA), Southeast Asia (SEA), South Asia (SA), East Asia (EA), and Central Asia (CA).
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis for 2001–2020; future projections for 2030 to 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified in the provided abstract.
• Data sources: Not specified in the provided abstract.

Main Results

• The frequency of wet heatwaves in Asia increased by 1.9 days per decade during 2001–2020, which is more than double the increase observed for dry heatwaves (0.9 days per decade).
• A growth percentage exceeding 50% in wet heatwave days was observed in most regions across Asia (West Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, East Asia), which collectively account for 99% of the continent’s elderly population.
• Projected exposure to wet heatwaves from 2030 to 2100, relative to 2001–2020, is expected to increase significantly:
  • East Asia (EA): 1.4 to 3.2 times
  • West Asia (WA): 1.6 to 13 times
  • Central Asia (CA): 1.3 to 9 times
  • South Asia (SA): 1.3 to 8.4 times
  • Southeast Asia (SEA): 2.2 to 15.7 times
• The rate of increase for wet heatwave exposure by 2100 is projected to be more than twice that of dry heatwaves across most Asian regions.
• Both rising temperature and the growth in the population aged 65+ contribute to the increase in exposure to wet heatwaves, with the population effect having a greater contribution than the climate effect across all regions.

Contributions

• Provides a quantitative assessment of the historical and projected disproportionate increase in wet heatwave days and exposure compared to dry heatwaves across Asia.
• Highlights the significant vulnerability of Asia's elderly population to increasing wet heatwaves.
• Identifies population growth as a more dominant driver than climate change in increasing future wet heatwave exposure across Asian regions.
• Offers regional-specific projections of future wet heatwave exposure, providing valuable insights for regional adaptation strategies.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Gao2025exposure,
  author = {Gao, Hui and Ding, Ting and Xie, Tiejun},
  title = {The exposure threat of wet heat extremes is substantially increasing to the 65+ elderly population in Asia},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae0958},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0958}
}