Douglas et al. (2025) Effects of temperature overshoot amplitude on regional climate

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-09
• Authors: Hunter Douglas, Laura E. Revell, Andrew D. King, Luke J. Harrington, David J. Frame
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae114f

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided abstract, but the study involves an ensemble of Earth system models participating in CMIP6, indicating a collaborative effort across multiple modeling centers.

Short Summary

This study investigates regional climate responses to global temperature overshoot scenarios, finding that while global temperature may be reversible, regional impacts on temperature and precipitation vary significantly and some extreme temperature changes persist for centuries, with the magnitude of overshoot being a critical factor.

Objective

• To assess regional climate responses (changes in temperature and precipitation) across the globe under different global temperature overshoot scenarios, and to understand the reversibility and persistence of these regional changes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with specific regional analyses for the Southern Hemisphere, Northern Hemisphere, North Africa, and East Asia.
• Temporal Scale: Decadal to centennial, covering the period of temperature overshoot and centuries thereafter.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: An ensemble of Earth system models from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6).
• Data sources: Results from two distinct CMIP6 overshoot scenarios.

Main Results

• A larger global temperature overshoot leads to a warmer Southern Hemisphere and a cooler Northern Hemisphere compared to a smaller overshoot.
• Larger decreases in precipitation are observed in North Africa, and larger increases in East Asia, with a larger temperature overshoot.
• Some regional climate differences, notably increases in extreme temperatures, persist for centuries after the global temperature has returned to the target.
• The magnitude of the global temperature overshoot significantly influences the long-term regional climate response.

Contributions

• Demonstrates that the reversal of global mean temperatures does not equate to a uniform or complete reversal of regional climate impacts.
• Highlights the critical importance of the magnitude of a global temperature overshoot for long-term regional climate trajectories.
• Provides evidence for the multi-centennial persistence of certain regional climate impacts, such as extreme temperatures, even after global temperature targets are met.

Funding

Not mentioned in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Douglas2025Effects,
  author = {Douglas, Hunter and Revell, Laura E. and King, Andrew D. and Harrington, Luke J. and Frame, David J.},
  title = {Effects of temperature overshoot amplitude on regional climate},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae114f},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae114f}
}