Zhang et al. (2025) Unraveling the anisotropic pattern of track uncertainty in tropical cyclones

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-18
• Authors: Ming Zhang, Quanjia Zhong, Ruiqiang Ding, Tao Wen
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a9

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the global pattern of tropical cyclone track uncertainty, revealing a strong latitudinal variation in the dominant direction of uncertainty (along-track vs. cross-track) and its correlation with translation speed.

Objective

• To quantify the global pattern of the dominant direction of tropical cyclone (TC) track uncertainty in along-track (AT) and cross-track (CT) directions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: Historical (based on historical best-track data)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Analogue ensemble algorithm; Multi-model ensemble forecasts (for comparison)
• Data sources: Historical best-track data

Main Results

• A strong latitudinal variation in the dominant direction of uncertainty was found.
• Along-track (AT) uncertainty is larger near the equator and within the mid-latitude westerlies.
• Cross-track (CT) uncertainty increases in recurvature zones.
• The ratio of CT to AT uncertainty exhibits a negative correlation with TC translation speed.
• A comparable anisotropic pattern of track uncertainty was identified in multi-model ensemble forecasts.

Contributions

• Provides global-scale quantification of intrinsic anisotropic tropical cyclone track uncertainty.
• Highlights the importance of representing anisotropic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment and operational forecasting.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Zhang2025Unraveling,
  author = {Zhang, Ming and Zhong, Quanjia and Ding, Ruiqiang and Wen, Tao},
  title = {Unraveling the anisotropic pattern of track uncertainty in tropical cyclones},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a9}
}