Τολίκα et al. (2025) Can we predict the extreme? Assessing the skill of seasonal forecasts in capturing the 2024 European heatwave

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-20
• Authors: Κωνσταντία Τολίκα, Errikos Michail Manios, Alexandros Papadopoulos-Zachos, Kondylia Velikou, Christina Αnagnostopoulou
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae21f7

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study analyzed the pronounced summer 2024 warming and heatwaves in Eastern Europe, finding average maximum temperature anomalies exceeding 3.3 °C. It evaluated seasonal forecasting systems (GCFS, SEAS5, Météo-France), which successfully predicted regional warming and large-scale circulation patterns, but showed limitations in accurately forecasting the precise timing and location of heatwaves and midlatitude blocking events.

Objective

• To quantify the summer 2024 warming trend and associated heatwave events in Eastern Europe.
• To evaluate the capability of seasonal forecasting systems (GCFS, SEAS5, Météo-France) to predict these above-climatological-mean temperatures and represent large-scale circulation patterns.
• To identify limitations in long-range meteorological predictability, particularly concerning heatwave timing, location, and midlatitude blocking events.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Eastern Europe, with specific focus on the Eastern Mediterranean, Balkan Peninsula, North Africa, and the Iberian Peninsula.
• Temporal Scale: Summer 2024 (June, July), analyzed against a 1991–2020 climatological baseline. Heatwave events were identified for 3–11 June (9 days), 17 June–1 July (15 days), and 6–21 July (16 days).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: GCFS (Global Coupled Forecast System), SEAS5 (Seasonal Forecast System 5), Météo-France (seasonal forecasting system).
• Data sources: Observational data (implied for temperature anomalies), 1991–2020 climatological baseline, and outputs from the seasonal forecasting systems.

Main Results

• Eastern Europe experienced significant warming in summer 2024: average maximum temperature anomalies reached 3.35 °C in June and 3.73 °C in July, while minimum temperature anomalies averaged 2.17 °C in June and 2.60 °C in July, all relative to the 1991–2020 baseline.
• Three distinct heatwave events were identified: 3–11 June (9 days), 17 June–1 July (15 days), and 6–21 July (16 days).
• Seasonal forecasting systems (GCFS, SEAS5, Météo-France) consistently predicted above-climatological-mean temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly the Balkan Peninsula, demonstrating robust regional warming trend capture.
• The forecasting systems accurately predicted subtropical influences, showing consistent positive temperature anomaly forecasts over North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula, indicating their capacity to represent large-scale circulation patterns.
• Limitations were observed in predictive skill for midlatitude blocking events and their spatial extent, as well as variations in accuracy across lead times and for the precise timing and location of heatwaves.

Contributions

• Provides a quantitative analysis of the pronounced summer 2024 warming trend and associated heatwaves in Eastern Europe.
• Offers an evaluation of the performance of multiple state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems in predicting a significant regional extreme heat event and associated large-scale atmospheric patterns.
• Highlights specific strengths and persistent limitations of current long-range meteorological predictability, particularly concerning the representation of synoptic atmospheric drivers and midlatitude blocking events.
• Emphasizes the critical need for continued refinement of seasonal forecasting models to enhance societal resilience against climate change impacts.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Τολίκα2025Can,
  author = {Τολίκα, Κωνσταντία and Manios, Errikos Michail and Papadopoulos-Zachos, Alexandros and Velikou, Kondylia and Αnagnostopoulou, Christina},
  title = {Can we predict the extreme? Assessing the skill of seasonal forecasts in capturing the 2024 European heatwave},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae21f7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae21f7}
}