Ling et al. (2025) Global warming weakens Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO propagation

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-26
• Authors: Jian Ling, Guiwan Chen, Chongyin Li
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae23e8

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study projects that the probability of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events successfully propagating through the Maritime Continent will increase by 29.3% by the late 21st century under global warming, driven by a zonal asymmetry in moistening associated with the expanding Indo-Pacific warm pool.

Objective

• To investigate how global warming and the expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool affect the probability and characteristics of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events propagating through the Maritime Continent.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Indo-Pacific warm pool, Maritime Continent, western-central Pacific, equatorial and off-equatorial regions.
• Temporal Scale: Late 21st century (future climate scenarios), intraseasonal variations.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate model projections (implied by the use of SSP5-8.5 scenario).
• Data sources: Model output (implied).

Main Results

• The probability of an MJO event successfully propagating through the Maritime Continent is projected to increase by 29.3% by the late 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• This enhanced propagation is facilitated by a zonal asymmetry in moistening during warm pool expansion, with moisture increasing more rapidly over the equatorial zone compared to off-equatorial regions over the western-central Pacific.
• The moistening rate preceding MJO convection, linked to an intensified equatorward moisture gradient, outpaces the growth rate of MJO amplitude, creating more favorable thermodynamic conditions for eastward propagation.
• The emergence frequency of MJO convection over the western Pacific is projected to rise by 36% by the end of the century.
• Intraseasonal variations of precipitation extremes induced by large-scale MJO convection over the western Pacific may become more pronounced in future climate scenarios.

Contributions

• Provides quantitative projections for the increased probability and frequency of MJO propagation through the Maritime Continent and into the western Pacific under global warming.
• Identifies the zonal asymmetry in moistening and the differential between moistening rate and MJO amplitude growth rate as key thermodynamic mechanisms facilitating enhanced MJO propagation in a warming climate.
• Highlights potential implications for more pronounced intraseasonal precipitation extremes over the western Pacific in future climate scenarios.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Ling2025Global,
  author = {Ling, Jian and Chen, Guiwan and Li, Chongyin},
  title = {Global warming weakens Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO propagation},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae23e8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae23e8}
}