Dong et al. (2025) Warm and wet anomalies persist across the pan-Arctic after carbon dioxide removal

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-27
• Authors: Xiao Dong, Chao Min, Hao Luo, Jiangbo Jin, He Zhang
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae24f2

Research Groups

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Short Summary

This study investigates Pan-Arctic climate responses to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) using CMIP6 models, revealing significant hysteresis and a persistent warming of approximately 1.5 °C and increased precipitation of about 0.1 mm d⁻¹ even after carbon dioxide concentrations return to pre-industrial levels.

Objective

• To investigate Pan-Arctic climate responses to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and analyze two ScenarioMIP pathways (SSP126 and SSP534-over) featuring declining carbon dioxide concentrations.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pan-Arctic region
• Temporal Scale: Long-term climate projections covering periods of carbon dioxide increase and decrease, extending to when carbon dioxide concentrations return to pre-industrial levels.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Nine CMIP6 models from the CDR Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP); ScenarioMIP pathways SSP126 and SSP534-over.
• Data sources: Climate model simulations/outputs.

Main Results

• Significant hysteresis and asymmetric responses were observed in both temperature and precipitation during carbon dioxide increase and decrease phases.
• The multi-model mean indicates that when carbon dioxide concentrations return to pre-industrial levels, the pan-Arctic region retains a warming of approximately 1.5 °C and increased precipitation of about 0.1 mm d⁻¹ compared to initial conditions.
• Temperature and precipitation changes in the pan-Arctic at peak carbon dioxide concentrations are approximately twice the global average.
• Substantial inter-model uncertainties were identified, primarily driven by divergent representations of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) responses and associated North Atlantic cooling patterns during the ramp-up period.
• Two models (CESM2 and NorESM2-LM) simulated particularly strong AMOC weakening during the ramp-up phase, leading to reduced warming and wetting trends across the pan-Arctic.
• A similar persistence of warmer and wetter conditions was also found under the SSP126 and SSP534-over scenarios.

Contributions

• Quantifies the irreversible nature of Arctic climate change, demonstrating persistent warming and wetting even under aggressive carbon dioxide removal scenarios.
• Highlights the critical need for improved representation of Arctic processes in climate models to reduce uncertainties in climate projection and mitigation strategy design.
• Provides a multi-model assessment of hysteresis and asymmetric climate responses in the Pan-Arctic to carbon dioxide removal.

Funding

[Information not available in the provided abstract.]

Citation

@article{Dong2025Warm,
  author = {Dong, Xiao and Min, Chao and Luo, Hao and Jin, Jiangbo and Zhang, He},
  title = {Warm and wet anomalies persist across the pan-Arctic after carbon dioxide removal},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae24f2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae24f2}
}