Bajaj et al. (2025) Exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather using CMIP6 projections of future climate

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Kushank Bajaj, Zia Mehrabi, Navin Ramankutty
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae293c

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study assesses the global exposure of agricultural lands, including croplands and pasturelands of varying sizes, to extreme weather in a 2 °C warmer world, finding a significant increase in extreme heat exposure that varies by land use type and farm size.

Objective

• To assess the exposure of the world's agricultural lands (croplands and pasturelands, particularly across small versus large farm sizes) to extreme weather in a 2 °C warmer world.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, focusing on present-day agricultural lands (croplands and pasturelands).
• Temporal Scale: Comparison between current conditions ("today") and a future scenario of a 2 °C warmer world.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified in the provided abstract.
• Data sources: Not specified in the provided abstract.

Main Results

• In a 2 °C warmer world, 25% (11 million km²) of present-day agricultural lands will face over two months of extreme heat, up from 16% (7 million km²) today.
• An additional ~2% (5 million km²) will be exposed to a combination of two or more extremes, up from 10% (4 million km²) today.
• The total area exposed to prolonged dry conditions and extreme precipitation will remain unchanged (less than 1% or 5 million km²).
• Approximately 2% less area (2 million km²), down from 7% (3 million km²), will experience a month of frost.
• Future exposure varies by land use type: pasturelands will experience prolonged exposure to heat stress, whereas croplands will be exposed to higher excessive rains and combined heat stress.
• Exposure to extreme precipitation is highest in small (1–2 ha) croplands.
• Exposure to heat stress is highest in medium (2–4 ha) pasturelands.

Contributions

• Provides a preliminary global assessment of how exposure to extreme weather varies by farm size and land use type.
• Underscores the need for tailored adaptation strategies to safeguard food security in a warming world.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Bajaj2025Exposure,
  author = {Bajaj, Kushank and Mehrabi, Zia and Ramankutty, Navin},
  title = {Exposure of global agricultural lands to extreme weather using CMIP6 projections of future climate},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae293c},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae293c}
}