Man et al. (2025) Uncertainty in Antarctic precipitation projections under global warming

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-15
• Authors: Kai Man, Yujie Miao, Yonghao Wang, Yusi Feng, Xichen Li
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae2ca9

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract, but the study utilizes simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), indicating a multi-model intercomparison approach involving numerous international climate modeling centers.

Short Summary

This study quantifies uncertainties in future Antarctic precipitation projections using CMIP6 models and identifies their underlying sources, revealing that these uncertainties are substantial and linked to global/Antarctic surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation (especially Pacific South American modes), and tropical sea surface temperatures via atmospheric teleconnections.

Objective

• To examine uncertainties in Antarctic precipitation projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations and investigate their underlying sources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, Antarctic Ice Sheet, regional (Antarctic, tropical regions).
• Temporal Scale: Future climate projections.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models.
• Data sources: Output from CMIP6 climate model simulations.

Main Results

• Uncertainties in Antarctic precipitation projections are substantially larger than those for surface temperature projections.
• Integrated precipitation uncertainties are strongly linked to uncertainties in both global and Antarctic surface temperatures.
• Atmospheric circulation, particularly the Pacific South American (PSA) modes, plays a critical role in shaping regional patterns of precipitation uncertainties.
• Tropical sea surface temperatures contribute to uncertainties in Antarctic precipitation patterns through atmospheric teleconnections.

Contributions

• Quantifies the magnitude of uncertainty in future Antarctic precipitation projections, highlighting its significance relative to surface temperature uncertainties.
• Identifies key drivers of these uncertainties, including global/Antarctic surface temperatures, specific atmospheric circulation patterns (PSA modes), and tropical sea surface temperatures via teleconnections.
• Emphasizes the critical need to improve the representation of polar processes in climate models to reduce uncertainties in Antarctic precipitation projections and enhance predictions of ice sheet contributions to global sea level rise.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Man2025Uncertainty,
  author = {Man, Kai and Miao, Yujie and Wang, Yonghao and Feng, Yusi and Li, Xichen},
  title = {Uncertainty in Antarctic precipitation projections under global warming},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae2ca9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2ca9}
}