Perkins‐Kirkpatrick et al. (2025) Heatwaves in a net zero World

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Climate
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-02
• Authors: Sarah Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Lisa Palmer, Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn
• DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ae0ea4

Research Groups

Information not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

This study examines heatwave projections after anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero, finding that heatwaves remain systematically hotter, longer, and more frequent for 1000 years, with no decline, especially if net zero is delayed. It challenges the belief that conditions will improve for near-future generations post-net zero, highlighting the need for permanent adaptation measures.

Objective

• To examine heatwave changes after anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero, using millennial-scale simulations.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global and regional, with specific mention of low-latitude countries.
• Temporal Scale: Millennial-scale (1000 years) simulations, branching off between 2030 and 2060.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Australian Earth System Model, ACCESS-ESM1-5.
• Data sources: Millennial-scale simulations branching off the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions set to net zero at various points.

Main Results

• Heatwaves are systematically hotter, longer, and more frequent the longer net zero is delayed, reaching highest values when net zero is delayed until 2060.
• Most regional trends show no decline over the entire 1000 years of each simulation, indicating heatwaves do not revert to preindustrial conditions.
• Some regions display significantly increasing millennial-scale trends when net zero occurs by 2050 or later.
• The longer net zero is delayed, the more occurrences of historically rare and extreme heatwave events.
• In low-latitude countries, historically record-breaking events occur once a year or more when net zero is delayed until after the middle of the 21st Century.
• If global net zero occurs before 2040, future heatwaves will be less severe than in a 2 °C warmer world.
• If net zero is not reached until 2060, heatwaves will be systematically more severe than the 2 °C upper threshold of the Paris Agreement.

Contributions

• First study to examine heatwave changes after anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero.
• Critically challenges the general belief that conditions after net zero will begin to improve for near-future generations.
• Provides novel foresight for planning and implementing effective and permanent adaptation measures.

Funding

Information not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{PerkinsKirkpatrick2025Heatwaves,
  author = {Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah and Palmer, Lisa and King, Andrew D. and Ziehn, Tilo},
  title = {Heatwaves in a net zero World},
  journal = {Environmental Research Climate},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/ae0ea4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae0ea4}
}