Qiao et al. (2025) Extreme dry-hot in North America and Europe: the amplified role of warming-enhanced land-air coupling

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Identification

• Journal: National Science Review
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-10
• Authors: Liang Qiao, Zhiyan Zuo, Renhe Zhang, Wei Mei, Deliang Chen, Meiyu Chang, Kaiwen Zhang
• DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwaf435

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigates the role of land-atmosphere interactions in future warming hotspots, projecting that North America and Europe will experience the highest warming by the late 21st century, with approximately one-quarter of this warming linked to hot-dry feedback mechanisms.

Objective

• To explore the role of land-atmosphere interactions in amplifying future warming hotspots under uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global land, with a specific focus on North America and Europe.
• Temporal Scale: Late 21st century.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified in the provided text.
• Data sources: Not specified in the provided text.

Main Results

• Under uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions, North America is projected to experience a warming of 3.7 °C ± 0.7 °C by the late 21st century.
• Europe is projected to experience a warming of 3.8 °C ± 0.5 °C by the late 21st century, exceeding the global average of 2.7 °C ± 0.4 °C.
• Approximately 25% of this warming in North America and Europe is linked to land-air coupling and associated hot-dry feedback mechanisms.
• This feedback mechanism involves warming accelerating soil drying, which further intensifies surface heating.
• The feedback could transform nearly 30% of land in these regions into arid or extremely arid zones.

Contributions

• Quantifies the significant contribution of land-atmosphere interactions and hot-dry feedback mechanisms to amplified regional warming hotspots in North America and Europe.
• Underscores the vulnerability of North America and Europe to amplified climate risks driven by greenhouse gas emissions and strengthened land-atmosphere feedbacks.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Qiao2025Extreme,
  author = {Qiao, Liang and Zuo, Zhiyan and Zhang, Renhe and Mei, Wei and Chen, Deliang and Chang, Meiyu and Zhang, Kaiwen},
  title = {Extreme dry-hot in North America and Europe: the amplified role of warming-enhanced land-air coupling},
  journal = {National Science Review},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1093/nsr/nwaf435},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaf435}
}