Еременко et al. (2025) Trends in Soil Erosion in Agricultural Regions of Russia in Recent Decades in the Context of Changes in Range of Agricultural Crops

Identification

• Journal: Eurasian Soil Science
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-17
• Authors: Е. А. Еременко, Valentin Golosov, С. В. Харченко, I. A. Sheremetiev
• DOI: 10.1134/s1064229325601520

Research Groups

• Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
• Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

Short Summary

This study analyzed trends in the C factor of crop rotations for snowmelt and rainfall runoff in agricultural regions of Russia from 1996 to 2022, revealing a general increase in the rainfall C factor, particularly in eastern regions, with high municipal-level variability, while the impact of the snowmelt C factor on soil loss has diminished due to climate warming.

Objective

• To identify changes in the C factor of crop rotations for periods of snowmelt and rainfall runoff during 1996–2012 and 2014–2022 at the level of administrative regions of the Russian Federation and their municipalities.
• To examine the distribution and changes of the C factor by districts and regions, considering dominant soil types and the impact of these trends, alongside climate change, on soil loss from arable land due to water erosion.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 31 agricultural regions of the Russian Federation and their constituent municipalities (oblasts and krais), covering main agricultural zones in various federal districts.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of C factor trends for 1996–2012 and 2014–2022, with comparisons to 1980 data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • C factor for rain runoff (CR) calculated using the formula: ${{C}{{\text{R}}}} = \,\,~\frac{{\sum\limits{i = 1}^6 {{{C}{i}}~{{S}{i}}} }}{{100}}$, where Ci is the specific erosion index for a crop group (including bare fallow) and S_i is the proportion of area under that group.
  • C factor for snowmelt runoff (CS) calculated using the formula: ${{C}{{\text{S}}}} = ~\,\,\frac{{{{C}{{{\text{DW}}}}}~{{S}{{{\text{DW}}}}} + {{C}{{{\text{PG}}}}}~{{S}{{{\text{PG}}}}} + {{C}{{{\text{F}}\,\, + \,\,{\text{F}}}}}~{{S}{{{\text{F}}\,\, + \,\,{\text{F}}}}}}}{{100}}$, where CDW, CPG, CF+F are specific erosion indices for dense-cover winter crops, perennial grasses, and bare fallow/fall-plow, respectively, and SDW, SPG, SF+F are their respective area proportions.
  • Specific erosion indices for crop groups were derived from the erosion zoning map of the Soviet Union (scale 1:8,000,000).
  • ArcGIS software was used for spatial mapping.
• Data sources:
  • Official statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on the area under various crops for each municipality from 2014 to 2022.
  • Published results of previous C factor calculations for 1980 and 1996–2012.
  • Data on the distribution of key soil types from the Unified State Register of Soil Resources of Russia.

Main Results

• The C factor of rainfall runoff (C_R) generally increased in most regions during 1996–2022, though the change was typically below 20%.
• C_R growth stabilized in the southern part of European Russia over the last decade but continues to increase in the Volga region, the Urals, and Siberia due to a rising proportion of row crops.
• A high variability of C_R factor values (1.3–1.8 times) was observed at the municipal level, influenced by natural factors (soil diversity, terrain) and economic specialization. Variability was lowest in regions dominated by chernozem soils.
• The increased C_R factor, linked to a higher share of row crops, contributes to decreased soil fertility due to enhanced water erosion, particularly in regions already highly vulnerable to erosion by the end of the 20th century (e.g., Kursk, Orel, Tula oblasts, Republics of Mordovia and Tatarstan, where annual soil loss exceeded 5 tonnes per hectare).
• The C factor of snowmelt runoff (CS) increased in most regions (Central, Volga, Ural, Siberian Federal Districts) until 2016, then paused. In the Southern Federal District and Stavropol’ Krai, CS steadily declined over the last 20 years due to an increased share of dense-cover winter crops.
• Despite the observed increase in C_S in some regions, its overall impact on soil loss from erosion is negligible due to a sharp reduction or complete cessation of surface runoff during snowmelt in most agricultural regions of European Russia, primarily attributed to climate warming and shallower soil freezing.

Contributions

• Provides an updated and detailed analysis of C factor trends (1996–2022) at both regional and municipal levels across diverse agricultural zones of Russia, filling a gap in post-2012 and post-2014 sanctions periods.
• Quantifies the spatial variability of C factors at the municipal level, linking it to both socioeconomic factors (e.g., agricultural specialization, market dynamics) and natural conditions (e.g., soil diversity, geomorphology).
• Highlights the differential impact of socioeconomic changes on crop structure and, consequently, on soil erosion vulnerability across different Russian federal districts.
• Integrates the analysis of C factor changes with observed climate change impacts (reduced snowmelt runoff, increased heavy rains) to provide a comprehensive assessment of current soil erosion risks.
• Identifies specific regions most vulnerable to increased water erosion due to the combined effect of rising C_R factors and historical high erosion rates.

Funding

• Funded by a grant from the Russian Ministry of Education and Science (contract no. 075-15-2024-554 dated April 24, 2024) under the major science project "Global Climate Challenges in Russia: retrospective analysis, forecasting, and adaptation mechanisms."

Citation

@article{Еременко2025Trends,
  author = {Еременко, Е. А. and Golosov, Valentin and Харченко, С. В. and Sheremetiev, I. A.},
  title = {Trends in Soil Erosion in Agricultural Regions of Russia in Recent Decades in the Context of Changes in Range of Agricultural Crops},
  journal = {Eurasian Soil Science},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1134/s1064229325601520},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1134/s1064229325601520}
}