Barriopedro et al. (2025) A Multimethod Attribution Analysis of Spain’s 2024 Extreme Precipitation Event

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-03
• Authors: David Barriopedro, Bernat Jiménez‐Esteve, Soledad Collazo, José M. Garrido‐Pérez, J. Emmanuel Johnson, Ricardo García‐Herrera
• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-25-0049.1

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study conducts a comprehensive attribution analysis to assess the influence of climate change on an extreme precipitation event in Spain (October-November 2024), finding that while unconditional probabilistic methods show no discernible anthropogenic influence, climate change signals emerge when atmospheric conditions are considered, highlighting the complex interplay of thermodynamic and dynamic factors.

Objective

• To conduct a comprehensive attribution analysis integrating complementary methods with varying levels of conditionality to assess the influence of climate change on the extreme precipitation event in Spain between 28 October and 4 November 2024.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Local and regional scales within Spain.
• Temporal Scale: The extreme event period (28 October to 4 November 2024) and historical extreme precipitation trends for comparison.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Unconditional probabilistic approaches, flow-conditioned analogs, and highly conditioned storylines.
• Data sources: Observations, reanalysis, and data-driven weather forecasts.

Main Results

• Unconditional probabilistic methods found no discernible anthropogenic influence on the probability and magnitude of such events at local and regional scales, aligning with historical extreme precipitation trends in Spain.
• Dynamical conditioning using low-pressure systems similar to the observed one revealed detectable climate change-related increases in precipitation, partially mediated by warm western Mediterranean sea surface temperatures.
• Highly conditioned storylines uncovered robust signals in precipitation and the thermodynamic drivers of the event, including human-induced moistening, but weak or non-robust responses in dynamical aspects.
• The findings highlight the complexity of attributing convective extremes and the intricate interplay between dynamical and thermodynamic factors.

Contributions

• Demonstrates the complementarity, rather than conflict, of different attribution approaches.
• Illustrates the importance of combining attribution methods with varying levels of conditionality to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change’s role in extreme events.
• Provides guidance for collecting multiple lines of evidence through a comprehensive integration of climate-to-weather approaches with varying degrees of conditionality on the observed event.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Barriopedro2025Multimethod,
  author = {Barriopedro, David and Jiménez‐Esteve, Bernat and Collazo, Soledad and Garrido‐Pérez, José M. and Johnson, J. Emmanuel and García‐Herrera, Ricardo},
  title = {A Multimethod Attribution Analysis of Spain’s 2024 Extreme Precipitation Event},
  journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1175/bams-d-25-0049.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0049.1}
}