Lim et al. (2025) Remote Forcing and Prediction of the June 2023 Texas Heat Wave

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-08
• Authors: Young‐Kwon Lim, Anthony M. DeAngelis, N. Thomas, Siegfried D. Schubert, Yehui Chang, Allison B. Marquardt Collow, Amin Dezfuli
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0018.1

Research Groups

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Short Summary

This study identifies the remote forcings of the June 2023 Texas heat wave, attributing it to a Rossby wave generated by tropical Pacific heating and extratropical Pacific vorticity transients, and demonstrates its predictability up to three weeks ahead using NASA models.

Objective

• To identify the remote forcings responsible for the June 2023 Texas heat wave (THW).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Hemispheric to continental scale, covering the tropical Pacific, extratropical Pacific, North Pacific, western North America, and Texas.
• Temporal Scale: Subseasonal to seasonal, focusing on the June 2023 heat wave, summer 2023, and extending to July and August, with predictability assessed up to three weeks and three months.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, stationary wave model, NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast model.
• Data sources: Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2).

Main Results

• A strong heating-induced circulation response was observed to the northwest of a tropical Pacific heat source.
• Significant vorticity transients occurred over the extratropical Pacific.
• A Rossby wave generated by these sources propagated across the North Pacific and western North America, leading to persistent above-average geopotential height and temperatures over Texas.
• GEOS model experiments and stationary wave model simulations confirmed the crucial role of the tropical Pacific heat source, with transient vorticity sources in the extratropical Pacific also contributing.
• NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast model predicted anomalous warmth for the heatwave period in Texas up to three weeks ahead.
• The model predicted seasonal warmth for summer 2023 up to three months ahead.
• Additional analysis for July and August showed an important role of Rossby waves in driving Texas heat waves and the model's ability to predict them up to three weeks ahead.

Contributions

• Identifies specific remote atmospheric teleconnections (tropical Pacific heating and extratropical Pacific vorticity transients) as the primary drivers of the June 2023 Texas heat wave.
• Confirms the critical role of Rossby waves in propagating these remote forcings to North America, leading to heat wave conditions.
• Demonstrates the subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of significant heat waves like the June 2023 Texas event, with lead times up to three weeks for specific events and three months for seasonal warmth.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Lim2025Remote,
  author = {Lim, Young‐Kwon and DeAngelis, Anthony M. and Thomas, N. and Schubert, Siegfried D. and Chang, Yehui and Collow, Allison B. Marquardt and Dezfuli, Amin},
  title = {Remote Forcing and Prediction of the June 2023 Texas Heat Wave},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0018.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0018.1}
}