Tan et al. (2025) Seasonal Prediction of Summer Extreme High Temperature Days in Western North America Based on the Dynamic Origins of the Cross-Pacific Rossby Waves

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-22
• Authors: Huı Tan, Zhiwei Zhu, Hua Chen, Bin Wang
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0051.1

Research Groups

[Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract]

Short Summary

This study explores the physical processes controlling the three leading modes of summer extreme high-temperature days (EHDs) over western North America (WNA) and establishes a physics-based empirical model (PEM) that effectively predicts their spatial pattern based on cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains.

Objective

• To explore the physical processes controlling the three leading modes of summer extreme high-temperature days (EHDs) over western North America (WNA).
• To establish a physics-based empirical model (PEM) to predict the spatial pattern of WNA-EHDs.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Western North America (WNA)
• Temporal Scale: Summer season, with analysis of interannual and interdecadal variability, and aiming for seasonal prediction.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Physics-based empirical model (PEM)
• Data sources: Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract (inferred to be atmospheric and boundary layer data for anomalies and wave trains).

Main Results

• The three leading modes of WNA-EHDs account for 59% of the total variance and exhibit a trend, interdecadal variability, and interannual variability, respectively.
• Positive anomalies of EHDs are consistently dominated by local barotropic anomalous high pressures (anticyclones).
• These anticyclones originate from upstream cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains, which are forced by various boundary layer anomalies.
• The established PEM, utilizing six physically meaningful and independent predictors related to the formation of cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains, demonstrates encouraging skill in predicting the three leading modes, approaching the upper limit of predictability for the spatial pattern of WNA-EHDs.

Contributions

• Reveals the spatial and temporal characteristics of the leading modes of summer extreme high-temperature days over WNA.
• Highlights the significant influence of cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains on WNA-EHDs.
• Establishes a physics-based empirical model with high predictive skill for the spatial distribution of summer WNA-EHDs, contributing to seasonal prediction efforts.

Funding

[Not mentioned in the abstract]

Citation

@article{Tan2025Seasonal,
  author = {Tan, Huı and Zhu, Zhiwei and Chen, Hua and Li, Tim and Wang, Bin},
  title = {Seasonal Prediction of Summer Extreme High Temperature Days in Western North America Based on the Dynamic Origins of the Cross-Pacific Rossby Waves},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0051.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0051.1}
}