Malik et al. (2025) High-impact and Low-likelihood compound hot and dry extremes in India

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-10
• Authors: Iqura Malik, Dipesh Singh Chuphal, Vimal Mishra
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0277.1

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the occurrence and implications of high-impact and low-likelihood (HILL) compound hot and dry extremes (CHDEs) in India under observed and projected future climates, finding a significant increase in their frequency, duration, spatial extent, and intensity, particularly during the summer monsoon, driven by climate warming and El Niño events.

Objective

• To identify the occurrence and implications of high-impact and low-likelihood (HILL) compound hot and dry extremes (CHDEs) in India under observed and projected future climate conditions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: India, covering approximately half of the country during extreme events.
• Temporal Scale: Observed period: 1979-2024 (specifically 1987 and 2015). Projected period: Future climate. Seasons: Summer monsoon (June-September) and non-monsoon (October-May).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Community Earth System Model (CESM2-LENS2), utilizing 100 ensemble simulations for future projections.
• Data sources: Historical analysis based on observed climate data (specific sources not detailed in abstract); future projections derived from CESM2-LENS2 ensemble simulations.

Main Results

• India experienced HILL-CHDEs in 1987 (summer monsoon) and 2015 (non-monsoon) between 1979 and 2024, severely impacting agriculture and water availability across about half of the country.
• Projections indicate a significant rise in the frequency, duration, spatial extent, and intensity of HILL-CHDEs, especially during the summer monsoon season.
• This increase is primarily driven by climate warming and further intensified by El Niño events.
• The growing occurrence of HILL-CHDEs is projected to severely impact food production, water supplies, groundwater use, and hydropower generation in the future.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of high-impact and low-likelihood compound hot and dry extremes (CHDEs) in India, a topic previously underexplored.
• Quantifies the projected increase in frequency, duration, spatial extent, and intensity of these extreme events using a large ensemble Earth System Model.
• Identifies key drivers (climate warming, El Niño) and potential severe impacts on critical sectors like agriculture, water resources, and energy.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Malik2025Highimpact,
  author = {Malik, Iqura and Chuphal, Dipesh Singh and Mishra, Vimal},
  title = {High-impact and Low-likelihood compound hot and dry extremes in India},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0277.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0277.1}
}