Wanthanaporn et al. (2025) Analysis of Seasonal Climate and Streamflow Forecast Performance for Mainland Southeast Asia

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-24
• Authors: Ubolya Wanthanaporn, Iwan Supit, Bert van Hove, Ronald Hutjes
• DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0092.1

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the skill of the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast system for temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia, and its subsequent application in the VIC hydrological model for streamflow prediction, finding useful skill for anticipatory management, particularly for temperature beyond 2 months and for precipitation/streamflow during pre- and post-monsoon seasons.

Objective

• To examine the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Seasonal Forecasting System, version 5 (SEAS5), seasonal forecast skill over mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) for temperature and precipitation.
• To subsequently use SEAS5 to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to predict streamflow and evaluate its skill.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), specifically eastern Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Evaluation period: 30 years (1985–2014).
  • Forecast lead times: Beyond 2 months for temperature; 1 month for precipitation and streamflow.
  • Seasonal focus: Premonsoon (April–May), Monsoon (June–August), Postmonsoon (October–November).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System, version 5 (SEAS5)
  • Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model
• Data sources:
  • Reference model datasets: WATCH Forcing Data ERA5 (WFDE5), Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE).
  • Observed station data (for streamflow comparison).
  • WFDE5-driven streamflow reanalysis.

Main Results

• Prediction potential for temperature extends beyond 2 months in advance.
• Skills of precipitation and streamflow forecasting are limited to the first month.
• Forecast skill exhibits strong seasonal and regional dependence.
• Strong forecast skill is observed during the premonsoon (April–May) and postmonsoon (October–November) periods.
• Low skill is observed during the monsoon season (June–August).
• Considerable skill levels are found in eastern and southern MSEA, including eastern Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
• Year-to-year precipitation tercile plots demonstrate skill in predicting anomalous seasonal conditions associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
• Overall, SEAS5 and derived hydrological forecasts show useful skill for hydrological and agricultural anticipatory management.

Contributions

• First comprehensive evaluation of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast skill for temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia.
• Integration of SEAS5 forecasts into a hydrological model (VIC) to assess streamflow prediction skill in the region.
• Identification of specific regional and seasonal periods of high and low forecast skill for temperature, precipitation, and streamflow.
• Demonstration of the potential of the VIC-SEAS5 model chain for operational early warning systems and anticipatory management in climate-impacted sectors.
• Validation of SEAS5's ability to predict ENSO-related precipitation anomalies in the region.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Wanthanaporn2025Analysis,
  author = {Wanthanaporn, Ubolya and Supit, Iwan and Hove, Bert van and Hutjes, Ronald},
  title = {Analysis of Seasonal Climate and Streamflow Forecast Performance for Mainland Southeast Asia},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1175/jhm-d-25-0092.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-25-0092.1}
}

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