Small et al. (2025) The 1957–1976 Summertime Drought Gap in the Southeastern United States

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Identification

• Journal: Southeastern geographer
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Gaston E. Small, Avery A. Catherwood, Paul Knapp
• DOI: 10.1353/sgo.0.a977903

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study examined drought frequency in the Southeastern United States from 1931–2024, identifying an exceptional 20-year drought-free period (1957–1976) linked to specific climatological conditions, which is unlikely to reoccur under current climate.

Objective

• To evaluate the frequency and occurrence of drought-free periods in the Southeastern United States.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southeastern United States (excluding Florida), across 38 climate divisions.
• Temporal Scale: 1931–2024, with a focus on the 1957–1976 period.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified in the provided text.
• Data sources: Historical climate data (implied for drought frequency, temperature, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation analysis).

Main Results

• An exceptional 20-year drought-free period occurred between 1957–1976 across most (28 out of 38) climate divisions in the Southeastern United States.
• This 20-year drought gap was five times longer than the next longest drought gap of four years during the study period.
• The drought gap was concurrent with below-average temperatures, absent dry conditions, the core of the Southeastern “warming hole,” and a negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
• These conditions suggest an unusual climatological event was the driver of this multi-decadal drought hiatus.
• The likelihood of a drought gap of this magnitude reoccurring approaches zero under current climatological conditions, indicating a climatologically rare to potentially unique event.

Contributions

• Identified and characterized an exceptional, multi-decadal drought-free period in the Southeastern United States, a topic comparatively under-focused in literature.
• Linked this significant drought hiatus to specific concurrent climatological conditions (below-average temperatures, "warming hole," negative AMO phase).
• Highlighted the rarity and unlikelihood of such a prolonged drought-free period reoccurring under current climate conditions, suggesting a unique historical event.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Small202519571976,
  author = {Small, Gaston E. and Catherwood, Avery A. and Knapp, Paul},
  title = {The 1957–1976 Summertime Drought Gap in the Southeastern United States},
  journal = {Southeastern geographer},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1353/sgo.0.a977903},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1353/sgo.0.a977903}
}