Goebel et al. (2025) NUTS2 Level Land Use and Land Cover Quantifications under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, 2020-2050

Identification

• Journal: Mendeley Data
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-28
• Authors: Goebel, Theresa, Britz, Wolfgang
• DOI: 10.17632/x4xfh2kcdy.3

Research Groups

• Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universitat Bonn, Research Group for Economic Modeling of Agricultural Systems

Short Summary

This paper presents a dataset providing consistent projections of land use and land cover (LULC) for European NUTS2 regions under five Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) from 2020 to 2050, generated using the G-RDEM computable general equilibrium model. The dataset offers high spatial and temporal resolution LULC dynamics, directly simulated at the NUTS2 level without post-model downscaling.

Objective

• To provide consistent projections of land use and land cover (LULC) for European NUTS2 regions, EU accession candidates, and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries under the five Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) from 2020 to 2050.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: NUTS2 regions for EU member states, EU accession candidates, and EFTA countries; country-level results for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, the rest of North Africa, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine; continental aggregates for the rest of the world.
• Temporal Scale: 2020–2050, with data available at 2-year and 5-year intervals.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: G-RDEM (recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium model), implemented in the open-source CGEBox platform, utilizing modules such as GTAPAEZ, GTAPE, MTOE, CO2Emissions, NONCO2_Emissions, and Sub-Regions.
• Data sources: GTAP v11 Power dataset (input data), extended with sub-national and LULC detail; LULC refinement based on faoagr and waterfab_a SAM split procedures.

Main Results

• The study generated a comprehensive dataset of LULC projections for European NUTS2 regions and other specified areas under SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5 scenarios.
• The dataset includes detailed land cover categories: Built-up land, Cropland (differentiated into 30 specific crops, further split into irrigated and rainfed variants), Managed forest, Other land (rock, ice, desert), Pastureland, Savannah/grassland, Shrubland, and Unmanaged forest.
• Economic land uses are associated with Cropland (e.g., apples, wheat), Managed forest (forestry), and Pastureland (e.g., cattle for meat, raw milk).
• Projections are provided from 2020 to 2050 at 2- and 5-year intervals, with land area quantified in square kilometers (10^4 km^2).

Contributions

• Provides the first consistent, high-resolution (NUTS2 level) LULC projections for Europe and surrounding regions under the five SSPs, directly simulated by a CGE model.
• Avoids the need for post-model downscaling by integrating economic and land use dynamics at the NUTS2 level within the G-RDEM model.
• Offers a detailed breakdown of cropland into numerous specific crops and differentiates between irrigated and rainfed variants, enhancing the utility for sector-specific analyses.
• The dataset is openly available and reproducible using the open-source CGEBox modelling platform, fostering transparency and further research.

Funding

• Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Germany (Grant ID: 450058266)

Citation

@article{Goebel2025NUTS2,
  author = {Goebel, Theresa and Britz, Wolfgang},
  title = {NUTS2 Level Land Use and Land Cover Quantifications under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, 2020-2050},
  journal = {Mendeley Data},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.17632/x4xfh2kcdy.3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.17632/x4xfh2kcdy.3}
}

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