Yang et al. (2025) Contribution of climate change and human activities to streamflow and lake water level variations at regional scales

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Water and Climate Change
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-01
• Authors: Qianya Yang, Jianhui Wei, Lifeng Wu, Chuanguo Yang, Liang Li, Jiayi Luo, C. Chen, Huanghe Gu, Mingzhong Xiao, Qian Wang, Harald Kunstmann, Zhongbo Yu
• DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2025.063

Research Groups

[Not specified in the provided text]

Short Summary

This study quantifies the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to hydrological variations in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1960 to 2019, concluding that while climate change drove streamflow increases, anthropogenic factors primarily caused the decline in lake levels.

Objective

• To quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological and hydrological variables across the Poyang Lake Basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), southeast China.
• Temporal Scale: 1960–2019.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Moving t-test, Mann–Kendall test, and linear regression models.
• Data sources: Meteorological and hydrological data (precipitation, air temperature, streamflow, and lake level).

Main Results

• Trends: Precipitation, air temperature, and streamflow showed an overall increase, whereas the Poyang Lake level declined.
• Change Points: Significant trend shifts were identified in 1991 and 2002 for streamflow, and in 2003 for lake levels.
• Drivers of Streamflow: Climate change was the primary driver of increased streamflow; however, its influence decreased after 2002, while the contribution of human activities increased.
• Drivers of Lake Level: The abrupt decline in lake levels is mainly attributed to anthropogenic interventions.

Contributions

• The study provides a quantitative decomposition of the drivers behind hydrological changes in the Poyang Lake Basin, distinguishing between natural climate forcing and human impact to guide sustainable water resource management.

Funding

[Not specified in the provided text]

Citation

@article{Yang2025Contribution,
  author = {Yang, Qianya and Wei, Jianhui and Wu, Lifeng and Yang, Chuanguo and Li, Liang and Luo, Jiayi and Chen, C. and Gu, Huanghe and Xiao, Mingzhong and Wang, Qian and Kunstmann, Harald and Yu, Zhongbo},
  title = {Contribution of climate change and human activities to streamflow and lake water level variations at regional scales},
  journal = {Journal of Water and Climate Change},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.2166/wcc.2025.063},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.063}
}