Kılıç (2025) Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion in the Ceyhan Basin Using the RUSLE Model under the SSP5-8.5 Scenario

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Agriculture Environment and Food Sciences
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-24
• Authors: Miraç Kılıç
• DOI: 10.31015/2025.3.34

Research Groups

• Department of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition, Faculty of Agriculture, Malatya Turgut Özal University, Malatya, Türkiye

Short Summary

This study assessed the impact of climate change under the SSP5-8.5 scenario on soil erosion in the Ceyhan Basin using the RUSLE model, projecting a 17.1% increase in mean annual soil loss from 4.424 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (1995-2014) to 5.182 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (2041-2060), with new erosion hotspots emerging in southern and central areas.

Objective

• To determine how mean annual soil loss (Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) will change in the Ceyhan Basin according to AR6 time periods under the SSP5-8.5 scenario using the RUSLE model.
• Principal hypothesis: Climate change, particularly its effect on the rainfall erosivity factor (R) combined with land use changes, will lead to significant increases in soil loss.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Ceyhan Basin, southern Türkiye, covering 26,875 km² at a 250 m spatial resolution.
• Temporal Scale: Historical reference period: 1995-2014 (20 years); Long-term projection period: 2041-2060 (20 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Computational analyses performed using Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-based infrastructure.
• Data sources:
  • Rainfall Erosivity (R factor):
    • Historical (1995-2014): Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) daily collections (0.05° spatial resolution).
    • Future (2041-2060): NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) datasets, specifically Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 Low Resolution (MPI-ESM1-2-LR) under SSP5-8.5.
  • Soil Erodibility (K factor): SoilGrids 2.0 datasets (clay, silt, sand, and organic carbon content for 0-5 cm depths at 250 m resolution).
  • Topographic (LS factor): Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Global 1 arc-second collections (SRTMGL1).
  • Cover Management (C factor): NDVI-based equation using Near-infrared (NIR) and red (Red) spectral bands from Sentinel imagery (spring and autumn).
  • Conservation Practices (P factor): Copernicus Global Land Cover Layers collections, with values established based on land use categories and slope conditions.
  • All datasets were harmonized within EPSG:4326 coordinate systems and resampled to a common 250 m spatial resolution.

Main Results

• The mean annual soil loss for the reference period (1995-2014) was 4.424 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, with a maximum of 169.39 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹.
• Projections for 2041-2060 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario indicate an increase in mean annual soil loss to 5.182 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, representing a 17.1% increase, with the maximum value rising to 196.75 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹.
• Rainfall erosivity (R factor) values are projected to increase by 7.6% in peak values, ranging from 239,689 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the reference period to 258,017 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the future period.
• Transition matrix analysis revealed that 93.8% of the study region is predicted to maintain its existing erosion classification.
• Approximately 69,402 hectares (3.30% of the total area) are projected to transition from "Very Low" to "Low" erosion categories, and 42,366 hectares from "Low" to "Moderate" erosion.
• New erosion hotspots are predicted to emerge in the southern and central basin areas, indicating intensified erosion processes in environmentally critical zones.

Contributions

• This study fills a critical research gap by providing high-resolution, AR6-based RUSLE applications for the Ceyhan Basin, simultaneously calibrating R factors using kilometer-scale precipitation data under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the 1995-2014 and 2041-2060 timeframes.
• It offers reliable predictions of future soil loss at the basin scale through the integration of high-resolution CMIP6 climate data with the RUSLE model, aiding in the design of climate-adaptive land management strategies.

Funding

The author declares that this study received no financial support.

Citation

@article{Kılıç2025Climate,
  author = {Kılıç, Miraç},
  title = {Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion in the Ceyhan Basin Using the RUSLE Model under the SSP5-8.5 Scenario},
  journal = {International Journal of Agriculture Environment and Food Sciences},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.31015/2025.3.34},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.31015/2025.3.34}
}