UkrNDIPVT et al. (2025) Analysis of Ukraine’s Agrocenoses Transformation Under Climate Change Using Ndvi Remote Monitoring

Identification

• Journal: Technical and technological aspects of development and testing of new machinery and technologies for agriculture of Ukraine
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: L. Pogorilyy UkrNDIPVT, R. Saidak, N. Maidanovych, V. Knysh
• DOI: 10.31473/2305-5987-2025-2-37(51)-10

Research Groups

• L. Pogorilyy Ukrainian Research Institute for Forecasting and Testing of Agricultural Machinery and Technologies (UkrNDIPVT)
• Institute of Climate-Smart Agriculture of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine

Short Summary

This study systematically analyzed the long-term dynamics of crop biomass formation in Ukraine (2001-2020) using satellite-derived NDVI, establishing quantitative relationships between vegetation status and key meteorological factors. It found that a comprehensive approach combining temperature and cumulative climatic water balance accurately predicts crop status, highlighting regional vulnerabilities and informing climate-smart agricultural practices.

Objective

• To conduct a systematic statistical analysis of the long-term dynamics of crop biomass formation in Ukraine based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and to establish quantitative patterns of the influence of key meteorological factors (average monthly air temperature, precipitation, and cumulative climatic water balance) on the state of vegetation over a twenty-year period (2001–2020).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 24 administrative regions of Ukraine
• Temporal Scale: 20 years (2001–2020), with 8-day NDVI composites and monthly meteorological data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Trend analysis using linear regression models.
  • Correlation analysis.
  • Multiple regression dependencies.
• Data sources:
  • Global Agriculture Monitoring (GLAM) system.
  • 8-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) composites from MODIS satellites (Terra and Aqua).
  • Retrospective database covering 24 administrative regions of Ukraine (approximately 23,000 records).
  • Meteorological data: average monthly air temperature (degrees Celsius), monthly precipitation sums (millimeters), and cumulative climatic water balance (millimeters).
  • Dynamic mask of agricultural lands to exclude non-agricultural vegetation.

Main Results

• Maximum NDVI values (0.61–0.67) are observed from May to July, with the most intensive biomass growth (42%) occurring in April–May.
• A stable positive trend of NDVI growth was identified during the cold period of the year (0.42–0.55% per year), leading to an 8.4–10.9% increase over 20 years in these months.
• A significant decrease in NDVI was recorded in September–October (by 13.9–15.6% over 20 years), attributed to earlier crop maturation and shifted winter crop sowing dates due to warming.
• Spatial analysis revealed profound zonal differentiation: the steppe zone exhibits the lowest biomass potential (0.47–0.66) and critically high interannual variability (32–50%), which is 4-5 times higher than in Polissya.
• The influence of the temperature regime shows an inertial character: the temperature of the current month correlates most significantly with vegetation status in the subsequent period (correlation coefficient 'r' reaches 0.80 in March–April).
• A comprehensive approach considering both temperature regime and cumulative climatic water balance allows for predicting crop status with high accuracy (multiple correlation coefficient R = 0.85).

Contributions

• Established the inertial character of the temperature regime's influence on crop status, demonstrating that the maximum correlation of the vegetation index (r up to 0.80) manifests in the month following the temperature influence.
• Developed a comprehensive approach for assessing agrocenosis status based on cumulative climatic water balance and temperature, achieving high prediction accuracy (multiple correlation coefficient R = 0.85).
• Provided a scientific basis for optimizing irrigation systems and implementing climate-smart agriculture methods, particularly in the vulnerable southern regions of Ukraine.

Funding

Not specified.

Citation

@article{UkrNDIPVT2025Analysis,
  author = {UkrNDIPVT, L. Pogorilyy and Saidak, R. and Maidanovych, N. and Knysh, V.},
  title = {Analysis of Ukraine’s Agrocenoses Transformation Under Climate Change Using Ndvi Remote Monitoring},
  journal = {Technical and technological aspects of development and testing of new machinery and technologies for agriculture of Ukraine},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.31473/2305-5987-2025-2-37(51)-10},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.31473/2305-5987-2025-2-37(51)-10}
}