Gouahi et al. (2025) Assessment of groundwater drought risk in arid regions using standardized indices and reliability analysis

Identification

• Journal: Frontiers in Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-06
• Authors: Soumia Gouahi, Mohammed Hssaisoune, Yassine Ait Brahim, Moussa Ait el kadi, Mohammed Nehmadou, Lhoussaine Bouchaou
• DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2025.1628691

Research Groups

• Applied Geology and Geo-Environment Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco.
• Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ibn Zohr University, Ait Melloul, Morocco.
• International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
• Hydraulic Basin Agency of Souss-Massa Basin (ABHSM), Agadir, Morocco.

Short Summary

This study evaluates groundwater drought risk in the Souss-Massa basin, Morocco, by integrating standardized drought indices with probabilistic reliability analysis. The findings reveal that groundwater drought in this arid region is primarily driven by anthropogenic overexploitation rather than meteorological deficits alone, with the Massa basin identified as a high-risk zone.

Objective

• To investigate the relationship between meteorological drought (SPI) and groundwater drought (SWI).
• To model Groundwater Drought Risk (GDR) and the Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) using reliability analysis to identify spatial vulnerabilities within the Souss-Massa aquifer system.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Souss-Massa basin, Morocco, covering approximately 22,600 km² (including the Souss and Massa aquifers).
• Temporal Scale: Precipitation data from 1980 to 2023; groundwater level data from 1960 (Souss) and 1970 (Massa) to 2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for meteorological drought; Standardized Water Level Index (SWI) for groundwater drought; Reliability Analysis (Load-Resistance framework); Monte Carlo Simulation (10,000 synthetic values); Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) for spatial mapping.
• Data sources: Observed rainfall from 7 meteorological stations and groundwater levels from 18 piezometers provided by the Hydraulic Basin Agency of Souss-Massa (ABHSM); Satellite data from GPM IMERG-Final V06 (GPM-F) to fill precipitation gaps.

Main Results

• Correlation: A very weak correlation (r = 0.07) was found between SPI and SWI, suggesting that groundwater levels are decoupled from immediate precipitation patterns due to intensive irrigation and overexploitation.
• Groundwater Drought Risk (GDR): Values range from 19.2% to 57.94% under mild drought conditions and 15% to 36.62% under extreme conditions.
• Resistance: The Massa aquifer showed the lowest resistance, withstanding a maximum of only 63 m of water level variation before failure under extreme conditions.
• Environmental Hazard Index (EHI): The Massa basin and middle Souss exhibited EHI values exceeding 80%, indicating a severe and increasing environmental threat to water security.
• Piezometric Trends: Groundwater levels in the Massa basin declined by an average of 1 m/year, with some boreholes drying up completely by 2018.

Contributions

• Methodological Innovation: Integrates the Standardized Water Level Index (SWI) with reliability analysis (Load vs. Resistance) to provide a probabilistic assessment of groundwater failure.
• Regional Insight: Provides the first comprehensive spatial mapping of groundwater drought risk for the Souss-Massa basin, a critical agricultural hub for Morocco.
• Policy Support: Offers a replicable framework for water managers in arid regions to anticipate groundwater shortages and prioritize intervention in high-vulnerability zones.

Funding

• Moroccan Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research and Innovation.
• OCP Foundation (APRD research program - GEANTech).
• AgreeMed and Water4Med projects (PRIMA-S2 program, EU).
• CHARISMA project (Academy Hassan II of Sciences and Techniques).

Citation

@article{Gouahi2025Assessment,
  author = {Gouahi, Soumia and Hssaisoune, Mohammed and Brahim, Yassine Ait and kadi, Moussa Ait el and Nehmadou, Mohammed and Bouchaou, Lhoussaine},
  title = {Assessment of groundwater drought risk in arid regions using standardized indices and reliability analysis},
  journal = {Frontiers in Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3389/frwa.2025.1628691},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1628691}
}

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