Li et al. (2025) Exploring runoff variation and attribution analysis based on the SWAT model and the Budyko framework in the Huangyang River of the Northwest Inland Region, China

Identification

• Journal: Frontiers in Water
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-10
• Authors: Wenxin Li, Peng Chen, Kuijing Li, Heping Shu
• DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2025.1667387

Research Groups

• Construction Cost and Fee Management Center of Water Conservancy Projects, SLT.GANSU.GOV. CN, Lanzhou, China
• College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, China

Short Summary

This study investigated runoff variations and their attribution in the Huangyang River Basin, China, from 1956 to 2023 using the SWAT model and Budyko framework. It found a significant decrease in annual runoff, primarily driven by human activities (approximately 69%) rather than climate change (approximately 30%).

Objective

• To establish an integrated framework combining SWAT simulation, vegetation feedback, and Budyko attribution to clarify the driving mechanisms of runoff changes under different scenarios in the Huangyang River Basin.
• To quantitatively separate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variability, including the specific impact of land use changes, and to reveal the vegetation-runoff feedback mechanism driven by the "Grain for Green" policy.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Huangyang River Basin, a component of the Shiyang River water system, located on the northern slope of the eastern Qilian Mountains, Gansu Province, China. Catchment area of 753 km².
• Temporal Scale: 1956–2023 for runoff and meteorological data; 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 for land use data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model
  • Budyko water–heat coupling theory (Choudhury and Yang functions)
  • Mann-Kendall mutation test
  • Sliding T-test method
  • Land use transfer matrix method
  • Sensitivity analysis
• Data sources:
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data (30 m spatial resolution) from Geospatial data cloud of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
  • Monthly runoff and precipitation data (1956–2023) from Huangyang River Reservoir Station, "Yellow River Hydrological Yearbook" and Hydrological Station.
  • Daily meteorological data (1956–2023) (precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind speed) from Xiamenkou, Haxi, Mozi Zui, and Huangyang River Reservoir stations, China National Meteorological Information Center.
  • Basin-wide average potential evapotranspiration data (daily and monthly, 1956–2023) from China National Meteorological Information Center.
  • Land use remote sensing monitoring data (1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, 30 m) from remote sensing image interpretation by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
  • World Soil Database (HWSD) soil spatial data from National Cryosphere Desert Data Center.

Main Results

• The annual runoff in the Huangyang River Basin significantly decreased at a rate of 0.042 × 10^8 m^3·a⁻¹ (p < 0.05), with 1991 identified as the mutation point.
• From the baseline period (1956–1991) to the change period (1992–2023), runoff decreased by 0.15 × 10^8 m^3.
• Seasonal runoff exhibited a "winter increase, summer decrease" pattern; winter runoff increased significantly at a rate of 0.40 × 10^8 m^3/10a.
• Attribution analysis consistently showed human activities as the main driver of runoff changes:
  • SWAT model: Human activities contributed 69.52%, climate change 30.48%.
  • Budyko hypothesis: Human activities contributed 68.84%, climate change 31.16%.
• Within human activities (SWAT model), land use change contributed 10.70%, and other human activities (e.g., reservoir regulation, water usage) contributed 58.82%.
• Land use changes from 1980 to 2020 showed an increase in forest land (from 230.42 km² to 231.18 km²) and a decrease in cultivated land (from 220.27 km² to 219.35 km²).
• Sensitivity analysis indicated that water bodies (sensitivity coefficient of 5.68 for 1980–2020) and forest land (sensitivity of 9.35 for 2010–2020) had strong responses to runoff changes.
• The Huangyang River reservoir, with a storage capacity coefficient (CSRC) of 24.76%, demonstrates strong annual runoff regulation, altering intra-annual runoff distribution (summer storage, winter replenishment).

Contributions

• Developed an integrated framework ("SWAT simulation–vegetation feedback–Budyko attribution") to comprehensively analyze runoff changes, addressing limitations of single-method approaches.
• Quantified the specific contributions of various land use changes to runoff variability, particularly highlighting the impact of the "Grain for Green" policy and the "water-ecology" trade-off.
• Provided robust evidence that human activities, including land use transformation and reservoir regulation, are the dominant drivers of runoff reduction in the Huangyang River Basin.
• Offered theoretical support and a scientific basis for sustainable water resource management and adaptive strategies in arid inland river basins.

Funding

• Doctoral Foundation of Gansu Agricultural University (No. GAU-KYQD-2022-04)
• Gansu Provincial Water Science Experimental Research and Technology Extension Project (Nos. 25GSLK103 and 25GSLK087)

Citation

@article{Li2025Exploring,
  author = {Li, Wenxin and Chen, Peng and Li, Kuijing and Shu, Heping},
  title = {Exploring runoff variation and attribution analysis based on the SWAT model and the Budyko framework in the Huangyang River of the Northwest Inland Region, China},
  journal = {Frontiers in Water},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3389/frwa.2025.1667387},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2025.1667387}
}