Sonuç et al. (2025) Fine-Resolution Multivariate Drought Analysis for Southwestern Türkiye Under SSP3-7.0 Scenario

Identification

• Journal: Agriculture
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-17
• Authors: Cemre Yürük Sonuç, Nisa Yaylacı, Burkay Keske, Nur Kapan, Levent Başayiğit, Yurdanur Ünal
• DOI: 10.3390/agriculture15242605

Research Groups

• Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Istanbul Technical University, Türkiye.
• Department of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition, Faculty of Agriculture, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Türkiye.

Short Summary

This study utilizes high-resolution (2.5 km) convection-permitting climate simulations to project a significant intensification of compound agricultural droughts in southwestern Türkiye under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The findings indicate a regime shift where soil moisture becomes increasingly sensitive to rising temperatures rather than precipitation deficits by the late 21st century.

Objective

• To evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural drought in southwestern Türkiye using a multivariate framework (precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature) under a high-emission climate scenario (SSP3-7.0).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southwestern Türkiye (27–34° E, 36–39° N), covering major agricultural basins including the Büyük Menderes, Küçük Menderes, and Antalya basins. Resolution: 0.025° (~2.5 km).
• Temporal Scale: Historical reference period (1995–2014) and two future projection decades: mid-century (2040–2049) and late-century (2070–2079).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: COSMO-CLM (version 6.0) regional climate model (RCM) in a convection-permitting configuration (CPCS), dynamically downscaling the CMIP6 MPI-ESM-HR Earth System Model.
• Data sources: MPI-ESM-HR for boundary conditions; 58 Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations for bias correction and validation; NASA/GISS aerosol climatology; FAO-DSMW soil data; GLOBECOVER land cover data.
• Drought Indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI-1), and Standardized Temperature Index (STI-1).
• Analysis: Multivariate joint probability analysis of compound dry and hot events using non-parametric empirical counting.

Main Results

• Climate Projections: Annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.34 °C (2040s) and 1.78 °C (2070s), with localized increases exceeding 2.5 °C. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 51 mm (2040s) and 116 mm (2070s).
• Soil Moisture Dynamics: While the 2040s show a modest average soil moisture increase (+5.67 mm) in some inland basins, the 2070s project a widespread 9% decrease (~12.37 mm), particularly along coastal mountain ranges.
• Compound Events: The probability of concurrent precipitation deficits, soil moisture deficits, and high temperatures (triple extremes) increases significantly. For severe thresholds (|Z| > 1.2), the likelihood rises from near zero in the historical period to approximately 3% by 2070–2079.
• Regime Shift: Correlation analysis shows that future soil moisture variations will be more strongly coupled with temperature (STI) than with precipitation (SPI), indicating a transition to energy-limited drought dynamics.

Contributions

• Represents the first multivariate drought analysis for Türkiye using convection-permitting (2.5 km) resolution, allowing for explicit representation of convective processes and complex topography.
• Provides a novel high-resolution perspective on the intensification of compound "dry-hot" events in a Mediterranean climate hotspot.
• Identifies specific geographic vulnerabilities (e.g., Taurus Mountains and Aegean coastal belts) where land-atmosphere feedbacks will likely accelerate agricultural water stress.

Funding

• Funded by the ACLIFS project (reference code: TR2017 ESOP MI A3 04/CCAGP/206) under the Climate Change Adaptation Grant Program (CCAGP), supported by the European Union and the Republic of Türkiye.

Citation

@article{Sonuç2025FineResolution,
  author = {Sonuç, Cemre Yürük and Yaylacı, Nisa and Keske, Burkay and Kapan, Nur and Başayiğit, Levent and Ünal, Yurdanur},
  title = {Fine-Resolution Multivariate Drought Analysis for Southwestern Türkiye Under SSP3-7.0 Scenario},
  journal = {Agriculture},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/agriculture15242605},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15242605}
}

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