Wang et al. (2025) Spatiotemporal Evolution and Drivers of Harvest-Disrupting Rainfall Risk for Winter Wheat in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Agriculture
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-24
• Authors: Zean Wang, Ying Zhou, Tingting Fang, ZhiQing Cheng, J C Li, Fengwen Wang, Shuyun Yang
• DOI: 10.3390/agriculture16010046

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text, but likely research institutions in China focusing on agricultural meteorology and risk assessment.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the risk of harvest-disrupting rain events (HDREs) in China's Huang–Huai–Hai Plain over six decades, revealing a significant increase and spatial shift in risk driven by evolving meteorological factors and amplified by underlying surface features.

Objective

• To develop a hazard–exposure–vulnerability framework to quantify Harvest-Disrupting Rain Event (HDRE) risk and its drivers at 1 km resolution in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain (HHHP), China.
• To analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of HDRE risk over the past six decades (1960–2019).
• To identify the dominant meteorological and geographical factors influencing HDRE risk and their interactions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Huang–Huai–Hai Plain (HHHP), China, at 1 km resolution.
• Temporal Scale: 1960–2019 (60 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Hazard–exposure–vulnerability framework, GeoDetector analysis.
• Data sources: Daily meteorological records (1960–2019), remote sensing-derived land-use data, topography.

Main Results

• HDRE risk has increased markedly over the past six decades, with the area of medium-to-high risk rising from 26.9% to 73.1%.
• The spatial pattern evolved from a "high-south–low-north" structure to a concentrated high-risk belt in the central–northern HHHP.
• The risk centroid migrated 124.57 km toward the north–northwest, from Fuyang (Anhui) to Heze (Shandong).
• GeoDetector analysis revealed a shift from a "humidity–temperature dominated" mechanism to a "sunshine–humidity–precipitation co-driven" mechanism.
• Sunshine duration remains the leading factor (q > 0.8), and its interaction with relative humidity shows strong nonlinear enhancement (q = 0.91).
• High-risk hot spots coincide with low-lying plains and river valleys with dense winter wheat planting, indicating the joint amplification of meteorological conditions and underlying surface features.

Contributions

• Development and application of a high-resolution (1 km) hazard–exposure–vulnerability framework for quantifying HDRE risk.
• Comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of HDRE risk evolution and its drivers over six decades in a critical agricultural region.
• Identification of a significant shift in the dominant meteorological drivers of HDRE risk, emphasizing the increasing role of sunshine duration and its interaction with humidity.
• Highlighting the combined amplification effect of meteorological conditions and underlying surface features on HDRE risk.
• Providing valuable insights for regional decision-making, harvest-season early warning systems, risk zoning, and disaster risk reduction strategies in the HHHP.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wang2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Wang, Zean and Zhou, Ying and Fang, Tingting and Cheng, ZhiQing and Li, J C and Wang, Fengwen and Yang, Shuyun},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Evolution and Drivers of Harvest-Disrupting Rainfall Risk for Winter Wheat in the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain},
  journal = {Agriculture},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/agriculture16010046},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16010046}
}