Faquseh et al. (2025) Long-Term Drought Analysis in Dura City, Palestine, Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

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Identification

• Journal: Applied Sciences
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-11
• Authors: Hamzah Faquseh, Giovanna Grossi
• DOI: 10.3390/app152211987

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study assessed long-term drought in Dura City, Palestine (2000-2023) using the Standardized Precipitation Index, revealing high short- and medium-term drought variability despite stable annual precipitation, primarily driven by a significant increase in yearly average temperature.

Objective

• To assess long-term drought conditions in Dura City, Palestine, from 2000 to 2023 and analyze trends in precipitation and temperature.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Dura City, Palestine
• Temporal Scale: 2000 to 2023 (24 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales.
  • Mann–Kendall test for trend analysis.
  • Sen’s slope estimator for quantifying trend magnitude.
• Data sources:
  • Monthly precipitation data from local meteorological stations.
  • Monthly temperature data from local meteorological stations.

Main Results

• The mean annual precipitation was 408 mm.
• Average summer temperature was 28 °C, and average winter temperature was 12 °C.
• SPI-3 values ranged from −3.13 to 3.87, indicating 67 months of moderate to severe drought and 12 months of extreme wet conditions.
• SPI-6 values ranged from −2.97 to 2.53, showing 34 drought months and 40 wet months.
• SPI-12 values ranged from −1.94 to 2.32, reflecting generally stable long-term precipitation patterns.
• Annual rainfall exhibited no significant trend (Sen’s slope = −1.34 mm/year, p = 0.785).
• Yearly average temperature increased significantly by 0.054 °C/year (p = 0.02).
• Results indicate high short- and medium-term drought variability despite stable annual precipitation, with rising temperatures increasing evapotranspiration and overall drought risk.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive long-term drought assessment for Dura City, Palestine, a semi-arid region vulnerable to climate change.
• Quantifies the disconnect between stable annual precipitation and increasing short- to medium-term drought risk due to significant temperature increases.
• Highlights the urgent need for integrated water management strategies (e.g., rainwater harvesting, groundwater protection, efficient irrigation) to enhance resilience in the face of evolving climate conditions.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Faquseh2025LongTerm,
  author = {Faquseh, Hamzah and Grossi, Giovanna},
  title = {Long-Term Drought Analysis in Dura City, Palestine, Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)},
  journal = {Applied Sciences},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/app152211987},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/app152211987}
}