Li et al. (2025) Assessing the Annual-Scale Insolation–Temperature Relationship over Northern Hemisphere in CMIP6 Models and Its Implication for Orbital-Scale Simulation

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Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-08
• Authors: Shuaitong Li, Shi Jian
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos16101167

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study evaluates Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature responses to the annual insolation cycle in CMIP6 models, finding that while models capture thermal inertia, they consistently overestimate temperature sensitivities to insolation, impacting orbital-scale paleoclimate simulations.

Objective

• To systematically assess the Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature response to the annual insolation cycle in CMIP6 models and evaluate the implications of modern biases for orbital-scale climate variability simulations.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northern Hemisphere land surface.
• Temporal Scale: Annual cycle (modern climate) and application to the middle Holocene (~6000 years ago).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
• Data sources: Implied observations for comparison (e.g., observed lag), and CMIP6 model outputs. A polynomial transfer framework was used for analysis.

Main Results

• CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed 20–30-day lag between insolation and temperature, indicating realistic land thermal inertia.
• CMIP6 models consistently overestimate temperature sensitivities to insolation.
• Strongest biases in temperature sensitivity are observed over mid-latitude regions in summer and high-latitude regions in winter.
• Applying the annual-scale polynomial transfer framework to the middle Holocene (~6000 years ago) shows that models with the highest sensitivity simulate significantly larger seasonal temperature anomalies than the lowest-sensitivity models.

Contributions

• Provides the first systematic assessment of the climate response to annual-scale insolation changes in CMIP6 models.
• Identifies a systematic overestimation of temperature–insolation sensitivity in CMIP6 models.
• Underscores the significant impact of modern climate model biases on orbital-scale paleoclimate simulations.
• Emphasizes the critical need to constrain seasonal temperature sensitivity for robust orbital-scale climate modeling.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Li2025Assessing,
  author = {Li, Shuaitong and Jian, Shi},
  title = {Assessing the Annual-Scale Insolation–Temperature Relationship over Northern Hemisphere in CMIP6 Models and Its Implication for Orbital-Scale Simulation},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos16101167},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16101167}
}