Temel et al. (2025) Examining the Probabilistic Characteristics of Maximum Rainfall in Türkiye

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-11
• Authors: Ibrahim Temel, Ömer Levend Aşıkoğlu, Harun Alp
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos16101177

Research Groups

Information not provided in the text.

Short Summary

This study evaluated the performance of four goodness-of-fit tests to select the most appropriate probability distribution for maximum rainfall in Türkiye, identifying the Wakeby distribution as the best fit across various durations and regions.

Objective

• To evaluate and combine the performance of four different goodness-of-fit tests (Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling, Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient, and L-Moments ZDIST) for selecting the most appropriate probability distribution function for maximum rainfall in Türkiye.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 81 provinces of Türkiye (country-wide).
• Temporal Scale: Maximum rainfall series for seven durations ranging from 15 minutes to 1440 minutes (24 hours). Record lengths of the time series ranged from 45 to 80 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Goodness-of-fit tests: Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, Anderson–Darling (AD) test, Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient (PPCC) test, and L-Moments ZDIST test. The Wakeby distribution was identified as the best-fit probability distribution.
• Data sources: Observation (rain gauge stations). A large dataset consisting of 567 time series of maximum rainfall.

Main Results

• A combined evaluation using four different numerical goodness-of-fit tests (KS, AD, PPCC, ZDIST) was performed to rank the performance of probability distributions.
• The Wakeby distribution was consistently determined as the best-fit candidate to represent the maximum rainfall in Türkiye.
• This finding was robust across three different evaluation perspectives: considering various rainfall durations (15 minutes to 1440 minutes), province-based examinations, and a general country-based assessment.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, combined evaluation of four different goodness-of-fit tests for selecting extreme value distributions in the context of maximum rainfall.
• Identifies the Wakeby distribution as the most appropriate probability distribution for maximum rainfall in Türkiye, offering crucial information for hydrological design and extreme event prediction in the region.
• Utilizes a large observational dataset (567 time series with 45 to 80 years of record length) covering an entire country, enhancing the robustness and applicability of the findings.

Funding

Information not provided in the text.

Citation

@article{Temel2025Examining,
  author = {Temel, Ibrahim and Aşıkoğlu, Ömer Levend and Alp, Harun},
  title = {Examining the Probabilistic Characteristics of Maximum Rainfall in Türkiye},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos16101177},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16101177}
}