Haseeb et al. (2025) Forecasting Rainfall IDF Curves Using Ground Data and Downscaled Climate Projections to Enhance Flood Management in Punjab, Pakistan

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Atmosphere
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-08
• Authors: Fahad Haseeb, Shahid Ali, Naveed Ahmed, Wafa Saleh Alkhuraiji, Bojan Đurin, Youssef M. Youssef
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos16111271

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This study projects future Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for urban centers in Punjab, Pakistan, using downscaled satellite-derived precipitation data under CMIP6 scenarios. It reveals a substantial increase in extreme rainfall intensities, with 100-year return period rainfall intensities projected to rise by 30–55%, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Objective

• To develop future projections of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for major urban centers in Punjab, Pakistan, utilizing downscaled satellite-derived precipitation data under CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) to assess future urban flood risk.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Major urban centers in Punjab, Pakistan.
• Temporal Scale: Historical baseline and future projections under CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: EC-Earth3-Veg-LR (General Circulation Model - GCM), Equidistant Quantile Matching (EQM) technique for downscaling.
• Data sources: Downscaled satellite-derived precipitation data, historical rainfall records from multiple meteorological stations.

Main Results

• A substantial increase in extreme rainfall intensities is projected, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• Projected 100-year return period rainfall intensities are expected to rise by approximately 30–55% across key cities.
• Downscaled projections reveal more pronounced variations in rainfall intensity compared to raw GCM outputs.

Contributions

• Provides future Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curve projections for major urban centers in Punjab, Pakistan, using downscaled satellite-derived precipitation data.
• Quantifies the projected increase in extreme rainfall intensities (30–55% for 100-year return periods) under CMIP6 scenarios for the region.
• Emphasizes the critical importance of high-resolution climate data for accurate regional hydrological risk evaluation and effective urban flood resilience planning.

Funding

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Haseeb2025Forecasting,
  author = {Haseeb, Fahad and Ali, Shahid and Ahmed, Naveed and Alkhuraiji, Wafa Saleh and Đurin, Bojan and Youssef, Youssef M.},
  title = {Forecasting Rainfall IDF Curves Using Ground Data and Downscaled Climate Projections to Enhance Flood Management in Punjab, Pakistan},
  journal = {Atmosphere},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.3390/atmos16111271},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16111271}
}